Entain moves higher after guidance upgrade

Entain PLC upgraded its full-year guidance following a stronger-than-expected first-half performance, driven by a 7% rise in total net gaming revenue and robust growth from its BetMGM US joint venture, which increased 35%. The company also reported improved online EBITDA margins, leading to a raised full-year margin guidance of 25-26%. Consequently, Entain now projects full-year Group EBITDA between £1.1 billion and £1.15 billion, with online net gaming revenue expected to grow approximately 7% on a constant currency basis, prompting its shares to open 1% higher.

Analysis

Entain PLC has issued a positive revision to its full-year 2025 guidance, underpinned by a stronger-than-anticipated first-half performance. The company reported a 7% increase in total net gaming revenue (10% on a constant currency basis), largely driven by a significant 35% growth surge from its US joint venture, BetMGM. Core operations also demonstrated resilience, with online NGR outside the US growing 8% at constant currency, bolstered by notable 21% growth in both the UK & Ireland and the newly regulated Brazilian market. This top-line strength, combined with favorable revenue mix and operational efficiencies, has improved profitability, prompting management to raise its full-year online EBITDA margin guidance to a range of 25-26%. Consequently, Entain has introduced a new Group EBITDA forecast for the full year of £1.1 billion to £1.15 billion, a material upgrade that signals confidence in achieving its targets, including a clear path for BetMGM to reach $500 million in EBITDA.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Given the upgraded full-year EBITDA guidance to £1.1-£1.15 billion and robust growth from the BetMGM joint venture, this report validates a bullish thesis on the company's growth strategy and operational execution.
• Investors should closely monitor the continued performance of BetMGM and the sustainability of the newly raised 25-26% online EBITDA margin, as these are the key drivers of the revised outlook.
• It is prudent to weigh the high-growth JV against the core business's more modest 3% NGR growth, while also considering the execution risks in competitive, newly regulated markets like Brazil.