Boeing Q2 earnings preview: CEO Ortberg's turnaround plan expected to roll on

Boeing's upcoming Q2 earnings report is highly anticipated as CEO Kelly Ortberg continues his turnaround efforts. While revenue is projected to significantly increase to $21.68 billion year-over-year, the company is still expected to post an adjusted EPS loss of $1.40 and an operating loss, though free cash flow burn is anticipated to decrease to $1.8 billion. Production and delivery rates have shown improvement, yet analysts caution that the ramp-up for 737 Max production may be more gradual than previously expected, pushing the 47 aircraft per month target to mid-2026, which could temper the stock's over 30% year-to-date gain.

Analysis

Boeing's upcoming second-quarter earnings report serves as a critical checkpoint for CEO Kelly Ortberg's turnaround plan, with the market balancing signs of operational recovery against persistent financial and production headwinds. Consensus estimates point to a significant revenue jump to $21.68 billion, a substantial increase from the $16.9 billion reported in the prior-year quarter, reflecting a rebound from the slowdown caused by the Alaska Airlines 737 Max incident. This top-line growth is supported by a notable increase in commercial deliveries, which reached 150 jets in Q2, up from 92 a year ago. However, profitability remains a major concern, with expectations for an adjusted core loss per share of $1.40 and an operating loss of $161.1 million. A key metric to watch will be free cash flow, where the cash burn is anticipated to improve to $1.8 billion from $2.3 billion in the previous quarter. Despite the stock's over 30% year-to-date appreciation, analyst commentary, such as that from William Blair, tempers enthusiasm by suggesting the crucial 737 Max production ramp-up to 47 aircraft per month is now more likely a mid-2026 target rather than a 2025 event. This revised timeline, coupled with ongoing issues with supplier Spirit AeroSystems and the recent Air India 787 crash investigation, underscores the gradual and fragile nature of Boeing's recovery.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should scrutinize the Q2 results for confirmation of the forecasted reduction in cash burn to $1.8 billion, as this is a key indicator of operational stabilization beyond just delivery numbers.
• Given the stock's 30% year-to-date rally, consider whether the current valuation fully accounts for the now-delayed 737 Max production timeline, which pushes a key catalyst out to mid-2026.
• Pay close attention to management's updated guidance and commentary on FAA oversight and supplier performance, as these remain the primary risks to the production ramp-up and the path to sustained profitability.
• While the initial report on the Air India crash points away from a manufacturing defect, monitor the final investigation outcome, as any negative findings could reintroduce significant reputational risk and regulatory pressure.