Noteworthy Friday Option Activity: MRNA, GS, CRWD

Goldman Sachs (GS) saw 28,779 options contracts trade today, representing roughly 2.9 million underlying shares—or about 107.6% of GS's one‑month average daily volume (2.7M)—with concentrated activity in the $850 put expiring Feb. 13, 2026 (966 contracts, ~96,600 shares). CrowdStrike (CRWD) logged 27,740 contracts (~2.8M underlying shares, ~86.7% of its one‑month average daily volume of 3.2M), led by high volume in the $435 call expiring Feb. 13, 2026 (1,834 contracts, ~183,400 shares). The prints signal significant options positioning and flow into those specific strikes and the Feb. 13, 2026 expiry, relevant for short‑term hedging/speculative activity and potential near‑term price sensitivity around those strikes.

Analysis

Market structure: Concentrated single-strike flows in GS (966 contracts at the $850 put exp. Feb 13, 2026 ≈96.6k shares) and CRWD (1,834 contracts at the $435 call exp. Feb 13, 2026 ≈183.4k shares) imply active institutional positioning rather than retail noise — beneficiaries include counterparties/market‑makers collecting premium and any directional buyer (CRWD calls) or hedger (GS puts). Such size equating to ~100% of GS daily ADV and ~87% of CRWD ADV compresses intraday liquidity and steepens local skew; expect higher implied vol for those strikes and potential market impact on the underlying via dealer delta-hedging.

Risk assessment: Near-term (days–weeks) tail risk is concentrated liquidity-driven moves and gamma squeezes if large blocks are unhedged; medium-term (1–6 months) risks include earnings, Fed moves, or index rebalances that can flip dealer hedges into directional flows. Hidden dependencies include structured products, client hedges, or M&A hedging that can persist until Feb 2026 and amplify volatility if positions are unwound; monitor open interest, block trade tape, and changes in skew for early warning. Catalysts: GS/CRWD earnings, Fed rate decisions, and any large institutional 13F/ETF reweights over the next 30–90 days.

Trade implications: Tactical: express asymmetric exposure to CRWD via a 9–12 month call spread (e.g., buy Feb 2026 $350–$550 call spread) sized 1–2% notional to capture upside while limiting premium; fund by selling elevated out‑of‑the‑money CRWD puts or call credit elsewhere only if skew supports it. Defensive: reduce direct GS exposure by 1–2% and/or buy Feb 2026 put spreads (buy $850 put / sell lower strike) sized to hedge portfolio beta; alternatively pair long CRWD vs short GS (equal dollar) for a sector divergence play. Liquidity play: consider selling very short-dated vol on large-cap banks if implied vol reverts, but limit to 0.5–1% capital and require tight stop-losses.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Establish a tactical 1–2% long position in CRWD using a Feb 2026 call spread (example: buy $350 / sell $550) to capture the apparent bullish flow while capping premium; size to 1–2% of portfolio and reassess after CRWD earnings or a 20% move.
• Reduce direct GS equity exposure by 1–2% and hedge remaining exposure with a Feb 2026 put spread (example: buy $850 put / sell a lower strike) sized to protect ~1–2% portfolio downside; if put cost >3% notional, switch to shorter-dated protection (3–6 months).
• Implement a relative-value pair: go long CRWD (1% notional) and short GS (1% notional) to express software vs. financials divergence, rebalancing if spread moves >15% or after quarterly earnings for either name.
• Cap any short‑vol or premium-selling strategies in financials to 0.5–1% notional and require intraday IV contraction of ≥15% or a realized loss limit of 25% premium to avoid gamma squeezes; monitor open interest and block-trade flow daily for 30–90 days.