March New York and London sugar futures ticked up modestly on pre-weekend short covering (+0.34% and +0.60% respectively), but the broader fundamental picture remains bearish as multiple forecasters project rising global supplies. The ISO and USDA now see a 2025/26 surplus or record production (ISO +1.625 MMT surplus; USDA global production 189.318 MMT with ending stocks rising to 41.188 MMT), while private forecasters and national agencies have raised output estimates for Brazil (Conab 45 MMT, Unica data show stronger Center‑South output) and India (ISMA 31 MMT, ISMA cut ethanol diversion to 3.4 MMT) and higher Thai output, and Czarnikow lifted its 2025/26 surplus forecast to 8.7 MMT. Near-term support has come from India’s talk of higher ethanol prices and a lower-than-expected 1.5 MMT export quota, but a weak Brazilian real is encouraging exports and limiting rallies; absent a supply shock or policy change, the weight of larger crops and elevated stock forecasts suggests continued downside risk for sugar prices.
March New York sugar futures rose modestly (+5, +0.34%) and London ICE white sugar edged higher (+2.50, +0.60%) on pre-weekend short covering and technical consolidation after three-and-a-half-week highs. The near-term market received specific support from India's policy signals — the food ministry is considering higher ethanol prices that could divert cane to ethanol, and New Delhi set a lower-than-expected 2025/26 export allowance of 1.5 MMT versus earlier 2 MMT estimates. Fundamentally the tone is bearish: the International Sugar Organization now forecasts a 1.625 MMT surplus in 2025/26 while the USDA projects record global production of 189.318 MMT and ending stocks of 41.188 MMT. Private and national forecasters raised output estimates for major producers — Conab lifted Brazil to 45 MMT, Unica’s Center‑South output and cumulative 38.085 MMT are higher, ISMA raised India to 31 MMT and cut ethanol diversion to 3.4 MMT, and Czarnikow boosted a 2025/26 surplus estimate to 8.7 MMT — pressure that drove recent multi‑year lows. Currency and export flows are influential short term: a weak Brazilian real (five‑week low) is encouraging Brazilian exports and capping rallies, while policy shifts in India remain the primary upside catalyst. Given the weight of larger crop estimates and elevated stock forecasts, price rallies look vulnerable absent a supply shock or substantive policy reversal.
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Overall Sentiment
moderately negative
Sentiment Score
-0.60
Ticker Sentiment
