Rumo Q3 2025 presentation slides: Volume growth drives 5% EBITDA increase

Rumo reported Q3 2025 results with transported volume up 8% YoY to 23.4bn RTK and adjusted EBITDA rising 5% to R$2.313bn while net revenue was broadly stable at R$3.819bn and adjusted net income held at R$733m; the stock slipped ~2% to BRL22.30 on the release. Operationally the company improved unit costs (fixed costs down 12% to R$28/’000 RTK and diesel consumption eased) but saw mixed segment performance—North EBITDA fell 3% to R$1.920bn while South EBITDA jumped 56% to R$329m—and lost market share in key grain hubs (Mato Grosso -6pp to 37%, Santos -4pp to 57%). Financial expenses rose sharply to R$837m amid higher domestic rates (CDI 14.9%), net debt ticked up to R$14.9bn (leverage 1.9x) but cash of R$7.2bn and largely long-dated maturities combined with ongoing R$1.474bn quarterly capex (R$575m to the Mato Grosso extension) leave Rumo positioned to pursue expansion (BR-07T terminal in 2026); investors should watch whether market-share trends reverse and efficiency gains translate into sustained margin recovery as interest costs remain a headwind.

Analysis

Rumo reported Q3 2025 operational momentum with transported volume up 8% year-over-year to 23.4 billion RTK and adjusted EBITDA rising 5% to R$2,313 million, while net revenue was R$3,819 million versus R$3,752 million a year earlier; adjusted net income printed R$733 million (prior-year R$794 million) and the stock closed at BRL 22.30, down 1.98% after the release.

Operationally the company delivered unit-cost improvements—fixed costs and expenses fell 12% to R$28/’000 RTK and consolidated diesel consumption improved 2% to 3.29 liters/’000 GTK—but service metrics weakened as North transit time rose 3% to 83 hours and Santos dwell time increased 7% to 17.2 hours, coinciding with market-share declines in Mato Grosso (down 6pp to 37%) and Santos (down 4pp to 57%).

Financial dynamics are mixed: North operation EBITDA declined 3% to R$1,920 million while South EBITDA rose 56% to R$329 million, financial expenses jumped to R$837 million from R$575 million amid a higher CDI (14.90% v. 10.43%), net debt ticked up 5% q/q to R$14,922 million with leverage at 1.9x, and cash of R$7,203 million supports ongoing capex (R$1,474 million this quarter; R$575 million to the Mato Grosso extension). Rumo’s strategic expansions (Mato Grosso extension, BR-07T terminal in 2026) represent the primary catalysts for margin recovery but rising interest costs and market-share erosion are key near-term headwinds to monitor.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Monitor market-share and service-metric trends (Mato Grosso and Santos) for at least one additional quarter before adding exposure, since share declines and longer transit/dwell times threaten revenue mix
• Assess interest-rate sensitivity: consider limiting position size or hedging duration exposure given rising financial expenses (R$837m) and higher CDI (14.90%), which are already pressuring net income
• Favor conviction buys only if management demonstrates reversal in North operation metrics or visible benefits from Mato Grosso extension/BR-07T commissioning, otherwise maintain a hold or selective-reduce stance
• Watch quarterly catalysts: South EBITDA strength, sequential improvements in transit/dwell times, and stabilization of leverage (Net Debt/Adjusted EBITDA) as triggers for incremental buying