Travel demand shows no signs of slowing. 3 stocks on Josh Brown's list to ride the wave

Viking (VIK) is the standout: +62% in 2025 and +7% YTD 2026, with $5.96B in advance bookings (up 13% YoY) and 86% of 2026 capacity already booked; company guides to ~13% revenue growth and ~35% EBITDA growth. Hilton (HLT) shows 6.7% net unit growth YoY with ~9,000 hotels and expects ~9% top-line, 38% EBIT and ~14% EPS growth in 2025; technicals: trading near $300 with the 200-day around $280. Marriott (MAR) has 1.78M rooms, a 610k-room pipeline (+6% YoY) and Bonvoy at ~271M members, but faces weaker sentiment after oil/gas price spikes and has pulled below its 50-day into the low $330s (200-day near $290).

Analysis

Travel demand’s resiliency is now separating asset-light, brand-driven operators from distribution-dependent incumbents. Chains and niche operators with high direct-booking rates and loyalty monetization have structural margin optionality as distribution mix shifts and incremental RevPAR flows straight to EBITDA; conversely, intermediaries that monetize attention (ad spend, metasearch) are exposed to AI-driven re-pricing of customer acquisition costs.

Second-order supply effects matter: fleet and room additions have long lead times and capex locked into multi-year cycles, so operators that can flex price while deferring capex capture outsized cash returns in the next 12–36 months. Fuel and transport costs are asymmetric catalysts — a sustained oil/gas spike erodes lower-end leisure elasticity and corporate short-trip travel first, while a drop would compress pricing power but quickly re-accelerate group bookings within one to two quarters.

Key reversals to watch are sentiment-velocity around energy/geopolitics and distribution economics resetting via AI/metasearch contracts. Technical pulses will matter for tactical execution (weeks to months), but strategic outcomes hinge on booking-window shifts and direct vs OTA mix over 2–4 quarters; that makes options structures and pair trades superior for expressing theses while capping downside.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Long VIK via 9–12 month call (LEAP) or 3–6 month call spread to the upside: entry on short consolidation with a 15–20% trailing stop; target asymmetric return of 40–80% if brand-led pricing re-accelerates and bookings convert — max loss = premium paid.
• Pair trade — Long VIK (shares or calls) / Short EXPE (put spread) over 6–9 months: rationale is capture differential between direct-booking margin expansion and AI-driven ad/revenue pressure. Size net delta to be headline-neutral; aim for 2:1 upside/downside payoff, max loss defined by spread width.
• Buy HLT on a tactical weakness (8–12% pullback) or use a 9–12 month call spread to limit premium: treat as core long with objective to capture 20–35% over 6–12 months if travel ARPU trends hold. Cut exposure on a >20% move against position within 3 months.
• Tactical short on MAR via 3–6 month put options if energy prices remain elevated or consumer confidence deteriorates: small, time-limited position sized as hedge for leisure exposure (expect 1:3 risk/reward if room rate/mix compresses in next two quarters).