1 Wall Street Analyst Thinks Tilray Will Soar Nearly 75%. Is It a Buy Now?

Tilray remains a speculative stock after falling back under $6 from nearly $8 during the recent legalization-driven rally, even as Roth Capital’s William Kirk reiterated a $10 price target and upgraded the shares to buy. Kirk’s bullish case centers on 73% year-over-year international cannabis sales growth and reduced Canadian price pressure, but the company is still posting net losses and its beverage unit faces declining revenue and gross profit.

Analysis

The market is still treating TLRY as a binary U.S. legalization call option, but the more important driver near-term is whether the company can re-rate as a global cannabis platform rather than a single-jurisdiction story. If international revenue is genuinely compounding faster than domestic pricing deteriorates, the earnings mix can improve without any U.S. policy change, which matters because policy headlines are noisy and can fade faster than operating momentum.

The second-order effect the market may be missing is competitive: expanded export channels reduce the incentive for Canadian producers to dump product domestically, which can stabilize industry pricing and improve gross margin elasticity across the group. That is bullish for the survivors with scale and distribution, but it also compresses the dispersion between the strongest and weakest Canadian operators, making stock selection more important than outright beta.

The bigger risk is that beverage weakness and ongoing losses cap multiple expansion even if sentiment improves. In this setup, a rally can happen on narrative alone, but sustaining a move toward the upper single digits requires at least one clean quarter of margin stabilization; otherwise the stock remains a trading vehicle tied to headline flow over a 1-3 month horizon.

Contrarian takeaway: the consensus is overpricing legalization optionality and underpricing operational optionality abroad. If international growth continues at a high double-digit rate and domestic price pressure eases further, TLRY can grind higher even without Washington, but the path is likely choppy and prone to sharp retracements on any disappointment.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Long TLRY only as a tactical trade, not a core hold: initiate on post-rally pullbacks below the recent base, target a move back toward the high-7s/low-8s over 4-8 weeks, and cut if the next earnings read fails to show continued international acceleration.
• Express the cleaner version of the thesis with a relative-value pair: long TLRY vs. short a weaker Canadian cannabis peer over 1-2 quarters, since the key edge is execution and export reach rather than sector beta.
• For downside protection, consider buying TLRY put spreads into strength if the stock re-tests prior rally highs; the name is still highly headline-sensitive, so upside can be abrupt but drawdowns can be equally fast if legalization timing slips.
• Avoid chasing the move on U.S. legalization headlines alone; wait for confirmation from operating metrics over the next 1-2 earnings cycles, because the stock can re-rate temporarily while fundamentals remain negative.
• If you want expressible optionality, use short-dated calls only around catalyst windows and define risk tightly, since implied volatility is likely to compress after each headline burst.