Form 13F Strategic Point Investment Advisors For: 2 December

The text is a standard Fusion Media risk disclosure and data-accuracy disclaimer, not a news report: it warns that trading financial instruments and cryptocurrencies involves significant risk (including loss of principal), that prices may be volatile and indicative rather than real-time, and that Fusion Media disclaims liability. There are no revenues, earnings, policy actions, or market-moving facts presented and no actionable market or company-specific information for investment decisions.

Analysis

Market structure: The disclaimer emphasizes data quality, venue transparency and crypto volatility—beneficiaries are regulated, audit-ready venues and custody providers (Coinbase, CME, Nasdaq) that can charge premium fees for reliable execution; losers are opaque OTC venues, illiquid retail exchanges and high-leverage miners whose business models hinge on spot price stability. Expect a 6–24 month consolidation where trusted venues capture 10–30% incremental share of institutional flow as fiduciary standards tighten.

Risk assessment: Tail risks include a regulatory clampdown (SEC or major jurisdiction action) that could force >30% immediate de-risking in crypto-exposed equities, and operational shocks (major data vendor outage or exchange hack) that can spike implied volatility 50–150% intraday. Short-term (days–weeks) is dominated by headline volatility and liquidity outages; medium (3–12 months) by litigation/regulatory outcomes; long-term (1–3 years) by market-share shifts toward custodians/derivatives venues.

Trade implications: Favor fee-based, regulated infrastructure: exchange operators and clearinghouses will see margin expansion and stable flow; reduce exposure to rate-sensitive, bitcoin-levered names (miners, MicroStrategy) that amplify downside. Options volatility will reprice higher—use protective structures (put spreads, collars) rather than naked directional exposure and size trades to withstand 30% drawdowns.

Contrarian view: The market may over-discount miners too broadly—if BTC mean-reverts within 3–9 months, miners can deliver 2x+ rebounds; conversely, a regulatory win for custody could permanently widen spreads and entrench incumbents (COIN, CME). Trade sizing should therefore be asymmetric: concentrated on regulated infrastructure with tactical, sized contrarian punts on distressed miners only after >40% price dislocations.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Establish a 1.5–2.0% long position in Coinbase (COIN) within 10 trading days—thesis: institutional custody/flow capture; target +25–40% upside over 6–12 months, stop-loss at -20% or hedge with 1% notional 3–6 month put.
• Initiate a 1.0% long position in CME Group (CME) within 14 days to capture higher derivatives/clearing volumes and fee expansion; target +15–25% in 6–12 months, cut to 0% if realized volumes drop >20% QoQ.
• Reduce net exposure to miners Marathon Digital (MARA) and Riot Platforms (RIOT) by 50% within 30 days; if either trades down another 40% from current levels, add a 0.5% tactical long (scale-in) aiming for 12–18 month recovery.
• Implement a paired hedge: go long COIN (2.0% notional) and short MicroStrategy (MSTR) (1.5% notional) to neutralize raw BTC beta; concurrently buy a 3-month ATM put on MSTR and sell a 35% OTM put to fund it, allocating 0.5% capital to the option spread for downside protection.