Kambi Group cuts FY25 EBITA guidance on FX, Brazil headwinds

Kambi Group has significantly lowered its full-year 2025 EBITA guidance to €17 million, an 8% reduction from consensus and a 24% cut from previous estimates, attributing the revision to adverse foreign exchange rates, slower market development in Brazil, and delays in new contract launches. This follows a Q3 revenue decline of 13% year-over-year to €37.4 million, missing consensus, though Q3 EBITA was in line despite lower September sports margins. While Kambi secured new Odds Feed+ and Turnkey deals and acquired technology to enter the Nevada market by H1 2026, a key partnership with Ontario Lottery & Gaming has been delayed, further impacting future revenue projections.

Analysis

Kambi Group has significantly lowered its full-year 2025 EBITA guidance to €17 million, representing an 8% reduction from consensus estimates and a 24% cut from its previous range. This downward revision is primarily attributed to adverse foreign exchange rates, slower market development in Brazil, and delays in new contract launches, signaling persistent operational headwinds.

Third-quarter revenues declined 13% year-over-year to €37.4 million, missing consensus expectations by 6%, with operator turnover falling 6% due to customer-friendly sports results. Despite the revenue miss, Q3 EBITA of €3.4 million met consensus, supported by improved expense guidance for 2025 at €145 million, the lower end of its prior range.

Strategically, Kambi secured three Odds Feed+ deals, including with Superbet, and seven Turnkey agreements, alongside acquiring OMEGA Systems' source code to facilitate Nevada market entry by H1 2026. However, the delay of the Ontario Lottery & Gaming partnership until Q1 2026, previously expected in H2 2025, further impacts near-term revenue projections, despite the company maintaining a net cash position of €45.6 million.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should closely monitor Kambi's ability to execute on new contract launches and manage foreign exchange volatility, as these factors were key drivers for the lowered 2025 EBITA guidance.
• Evaluate the long-term revenue contribution from the planned Nevada market entry in H1 2026 and the delayed Ontario partnership, weighing these against the near-term operational headwinds and slower market development in Brazil.
• Assess the company's financial resilience, particularly its €45.6 million net cash position and improved expense guidance, as it navigates a period of cautious outlook and strategic transitions.