Here Are 2 Chip Stocks Reporting Earnings This Week That You Won't Want to Miss

Intel reported Q4 2025 revenue of $13.7B, down 4% year over year, while adjusted EPS rose to $0.15 from $0.13; its data center and AI segment grew 9% to $4.7B, but management warned available supply will be at its lowest in Q1 before improving in Q2 and beyond. Texas Instruments posted 10% revenue growth to $4.4B, EPS of $1.27 versus $1.30 a year ago, and nearly doubled 2025 free cash flow to $2.9B, with data center revenue up roughly 70% year over year. The piece is constructive on both stocks' AI exposure, but emphasizes supply-chain risk at Intel and valuation/execution risk at TI.

Analysis

The setup is a classic split-screen: Intel is still being valued like a successful turnaround before the supply inflection is visible, while Texas Instruments is being paid for a recovery that is already showing up in cash generation and data-center mix. The market is effectively saying INTC needs execution proof in the next 1-2 quarters, but TXN has a longer runway because incremental AI-related content can offset a sluggish industrial backdrop. That makes TXN the cleaner “AI without pure-play AI multiple” expression, and it also raises the bar for Intel: any sign the supply trough extends into 2H would likely force multiple compression rather than just a temporary earnings miss.

The second-order winner from both names is the AI infrastructure supply chain outside the obvious compute layer. TXN’s rack power/thermal exposure implies upside for higher-voltage power management, passives, and thermal vendors; that demand is less cyclical than server unit growth and can persist even if capex normalizes. Intel’s constraint is the opposite: if supply is tight while demand is intact, downstream OEMs may reallocate share toward more reliable suppliers, creating a slower-moving but real competitive leak that won’t show up in one quarter’s revenue line.

The key risk is timing mismatch. Intel can look better on paper in 2H only if supply improves fast enough to convert demand into shipments; otherwise, the story remains narrative-driven and vulnerable to disappointment. For TXN, the contrarian issue is that the market may be extrapolating a seven-quarter data-center streak too far into a cyclical name priced for acceleration; if industrials don’t recover, the AI contribution may be enough for growth, but not enough to justify a premium multiple indefinitely.

From a positioning standpoint, this is more attractive as a relative-value trade than as two outright longs. The asymmetry favors TXN over INTC near term, but the broader AI chain may be mispricing the second-order beneficiaries whose earnings leverage is not yet fully reflected. The near-term catalyst is earnings guidance; the medium-term catalyst is whether rack power and thermal demand can remain insulated from a pause in broader semiconductor ordering.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Long TXN / short INTC as a 1-3 month pair trade: TXN has better cash-flow visibility and a cleaner AI attach point; INTC still needs supply normalization to defend the turnaround premium.
• Sell near-dated INTC downside puts or structure a bearish call spread into earnings: risk/reward favors a post-print de-rating if management does not materially improve Q2/Q3 supply commentary.
• Buy a basket of AI power-chain beneficiaries on any TXN-led confirmation of rack power growth over the next 1-2 quarters; target names with exposure to power management, thermal, and interconnect where valuation has not yet rerated.
• If TXN gaps higher on guidance, fade part of the move with a tight stop via short-dated call overwrites: the stock already embeds a growth reacceleration premium, and cyclicality can reassert quickly if industrial orders stay soft.
• Maintain a tactical long NVDA against short INTC only if Intel’s commentary implies persistent manufacturing bottlenecks: that outcome extends compute share gains to the incumbent GPU ecosystem and keeps capex flowing to the established AI leader.