New analysis shows more US consumers are falling behind on their utility bills

A new analysis by The Century Foundation and advocacy group Protect Borrowers finds average past‑due utility balances rose 9.7% year‑over‑year to $789 in Apr–Jun 2025 as monthly energy bills jumped roughly 12%, and nearly 6 million households now face utility debt severe enough to be referred to collections—signaling a strain on household finances. The data are a political and economic red flag for the Biden-era economy’s perceived resilience and a headache for the Trump administration, which says electricity pricing is a state issue while critics blame federal policy that impedes renewables and point to demand from power‑hungry AI data centers as a potential driver of higher bills. Although other measures show growing delinquencies for mortgages, auto and student loans, broader spending analyses (eg, Bank of America) suggest overall consumer financial health remains mixed rather than uniformly deteriorating.

Analysis

The Century Foundation and Protect Borrowers report shows average past-due utility balances rose 9.7% year-over-year to $789 in Apr–Jun 2025 while monthly energy bills increased ~12% over the same period, and nearly 6 million households now carry utility debt severe enough to be referred to collections. During President Trump’s first six months in office there was a 3.8% increase in households with severely overdue utility bills, highlighting a recent acceleration in household stress specific to utilities.

Rising utility delinquencies occur alongside broader signs of consumer strain: the New York Fed reports increases in 90+ day delinquencies for mortgages, auto loans and student debt, even as Bank of America’s spending analysis finds overall consumer financial health “looks sound.” The divergence suggests localized pressure from energy costs that may not yet have fully transmitted to aggregate spending metrics.

Political and sectoral implications are material: the piece emphasizes AI data centers’ heavy electricity use and assigns blame both to federal policy that critics say impedes renewables and to state-level rate-setting, creating potential regulatory shifts. Investors should watch utility rate reviews, renewable policy signals, energy-price trajectories and consumer delinquency series for early indications of broader credit and consumption stress.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Monitor utility-specific metrics (past-due balances, number of accounts headed to collections, and monthly energy-bill inflation) as a leading indicator of consumer stress and potential spillover to discretionary spending
• Reassess exposure to consumer discretionary and regional retailers in markets with rising utility burdens and favor defensive consumer staples and large, price-setting foodservice operators with demonstrated pricing power
• Evaluate selective exposure to utilities and renewable-energy developers given potential policy responses and higher electricity demand from AI/data-center buildouts, while monitoring state utility regulator actions
• Watch 90+ day delinquency trends and bank loan-loss provisions for signs that utility distress is widening credit stress among consumers, and consider tactical hedges against further energy-price upside