What are today's mortgage interest rates: March 31, 2026?

30-year purchase mortgage rates averaged 6.37% on March 31, 2026 (15-year purchase 5.75%); 30-year refinance averaged 6.72% (15-year refi 5.72%). Mortgage rates rose roughly 50 basis points in March as higher unemployment, stalled inflation and a Fed hold — plus geopolitical uncertainty — applied upward pressure. Rates remain markedly better than at similar points in 2024–25 and could ease modestly in April; borrowers should shop lenders and consider rate locks if executing purchases or refinances.

Analysis

Agency MBS and mortgage-sensitive credit still have asymmetric upside from modest rate relief because of convexity and hedging dynamics — a 20–30bp drop in 10-year yields typically translates into a 1–2% price move for broad MBS ETFs (duration ~4–6yrs) and can trigger a cascade of lock-ins that materially increases originator cash flows over several weeks. Conversely, a 20–30bp rise compresses passthrough prices and forces deleveraging in leveraged mortgage pools and mREITs, amplifying mark-to-market pain beyond the move in Treasuries.

Mortgage originators and pipeline-dependent fintechs face the highest gamma: volumes and forward revenue are binary over 2–8 week windows once borrower sentiment or headline volatility changes. Regional banks are facing a bifurcated path — net interest income benefits from a higher rate floor but loan growth and asset quality deteriorate with labor-market softness; that trade plays out over quarters rather than days.

The near-term catalysts to watch are small: week-to-week 10y moves, swap spread compression, and prepayment/runoff signaling from servicers. If breakevens and term premium compress by ~10–15bp on stable growth prints or a geopolitical thaw, expect a fast, mechanically-driven rally in MBS and a squeeze in originator shorts. If unemployment or risk-off shocks reappear, the reverse will be both rapid and amplified because of leverage in originator balance sheets and mREITs.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Buy iShares MBS ETF (MBB) — 3–5% of fixed-income sleeve, entry on any 10y dip >10bp intraday. Timeframe: 4–8 weeks. R/R: aim for +2–3% if 10y falls 20–30bp; downside -3–4% if 10y rises 25–50bp. Use a 2.5% stop-loss or unwind if swap spreads widen >15bp.
• Short Rocket Companies (RKT) — tactical short sized to 0.5–1% NAV, horizon 1–3 months. Rationale: pipeline-sensitive revenue and binary lock volume; target 30–50% downside if refi demand remains weak. Risk: rapid rate drop >25bp causes fast squeeze; place 25% stop-loss or hedge with short-dated calls.
• Buy VNQ Jun-2026 1–3 month call spread (bull call spread) — low-premium way to express a modest fall in yields improving REIT valuations. Timeframe: 3–6 months. R/R: limited downside = premium, upside 3–5x if yields fall 40–50bp and sentiment rotates into property names.
• Pair trade: Long JPM (or large diversified bank) vs Short RKT — equal dollar notional, horizon 1–3 months. Rationale: banks capture wider NIM over months; originator equity is immediate-volume sensitive. Risk: systemic risk rally that lifts both; size as market-neutral and trim if 10y moves >30bp in either direction.