Invitation to presentation of Hexagon's Year-End Report on 30 January

Hexagon will publish its 2025 Year‑End Report on Friday, 30 January 2026 at ~08:00 CET, with President and CEO Anders Svensson presenting results via live webcast and telephone conference at 10:00 CET (Q&A available to registered callers). The company (Nasdaq Stockholm: HEXA B) cites approximately EUR 5.4bn in net sales and ~24,800 employees across 50 countries; presentation materials will be posted on demand. Investors should note the scheduled release and management presentation as the primary near‑term catalyst for potential stock movement.

Analysis

Market structure: Hexagon (Nasdaq Stockholm: HEXA B) sits at the intersection of measurement hardware and recurring software for manufacturing, construction, mining and autonomy, so it benefits if enterprise capex recovers or if customers migrate to SaaS-enabled workflows. Direct winners: Hexagon and software-centric peers (Trimble TRMB); direct losers: smaller hardware-only vendors (FARO) and legacy surveying services losing share. Near-term pricing power rests on differentiated software/service bundles (expect 100–300bp higher gross margins vs pure hardware peers over 3 years). Cross-asset: expect a jump in implied volatility in Swedish options and modest SEK strength on a positive beat; minimal sovereign bond impact but IG credit spreads could tighten 5–15bps on upside guidance.

Risk assessment: Tail risks include export controls on sensing/dual-use tech, a large mining/construction capex pullback, or failed integrations from M&A that compress margins by >200bps. Immediate risk window is the earnings call (30 Jan); short-term (3–6 months) risk is guidance-driven directional moves; long-term (12–36 months) depends on ARR conversion and recurring revenue mix. Hidden dependencies include customer concentration, semiconductor component lead times, and backlog recognition policies that can mask demand shifts. Catalysts: Q4 bookings, ARR growth rate, and margin guidance — clear thresholds: ARR growth >10% or +100bps operating margin would be materially positive.

Trade implications: Event trade: buy 30-day ATM straddle/strangle 7–10 days pre-earnings sized 0.5–1.0% of portfolio to capture IV re-pricing, close within 2 trading days post-release. Directional: establish a 2% long in HEXA B within 1–3 days after release if revenue beats by >2% and EBIT margin expands by ≥100bps; stop-loss -8%, target +20% in 6–12 months. Relative: pair trade long HEXA B (1.5% portfolio) vs short FARO (FARO, 1.0%) targeting 200–400bp EBITDA margin outperformance over 12 months; unwind if spread tightens >15%.

Contrarian angles: Consensus may underprice Hexagon’s secular shift to software/recurring revenue; a modest miss could be over-punished given high-quality backlog, creating buying opportunities. Historical parallel: Trimble’s multi-year rerating as ARR normalized — Hexagon can follow if ARR >10% and margins expand; conversely, a positive print could still see multiple compression if macro narratives dominate. Unintended consequence: an upbeat guide that reduces capex visibility in certain end-markets could trigger rotational selling into pure software names — watch guidance language closely for durability signals.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Purchase a 30-day ATM straddle on HEXA B 7–10 days before 30 Jan release sized to 0.5% of portfolio value; close within 2 trading days post-release or if premium decays >50%.
• If Hexagon reports revenue >consensus by ≥2% and EBIT margin +≥100bps, establish a 2% long position in HEXA B within 1–3 trading days; set stop-loss at -8% and a 6–12 month target of +20%.
• Enter a relative-value pair: long HEXA B (1.5% portfolio) vs short FARO (FARO, 1.0%) targeting 200–400bp EBITDA margin outperformance over 12 months; tighten stop if spread narrows >15% within 90 days.
• Reduce undifferentiated cyclical industrial exposure by 2–4% and rotate into industrials with high software mix (e.g., TRMB) if Hexagon guidance confirms ARR growth >10% over next 12 months; re-evaluate on the next quarterly update.