Waste Connections (WCN) Earnings Expected to Grow: What to Know Ahead of Next Week's Release

Waste Connections (WCN) is set to release its Q2 2025 earnings on July 23, with consensus estimates forecasting $1.25 EPS (+0.8% YoY) and $2.39 billion in revenue (+6.4% YoY). Despite a recent 1.04% downward revision in EPS estimates, the company's positive Zacks Earnings ESP of +0.61% combined with a Zacks Rank of #3 indicates a high probability of beating consensus EPS expectations. This outlook, supported by WCN's history of exceeding estimates in three of the last four quarters, positions the solid waste services provider as a compelling candidate for an earnings surprise, which could influence its near-term stock performance.

Analysis

Waste Connections (WCN) is positioned for a probable earnings beat in its upcoming quarterly report on July 23, based on key predictive indicators. The consensus forecast anticipates revenue of $2.39 billion, a 6.4% year-over-year increase, but a more subdued earnings growth of 0.8% to $1.25 per share. A notable point of friction is the recent 1.04% downward revision of the consensus EPS estimate over the past 30 days, suggesting some prior caution among analysts. However, more recent analyst activity, captured by the Zacks Most Accurate Estimate, is more bullish, resulting in a positive Earnings ESP of +0.61%. This positive ESP, combined with a neutral-to-positive Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), creates a statistical setup that, according to the source's research, has historically led to a positive earnings surprise nearly 70% of the time. This outlook is further reinforced by WCN's track record of surpassing consensus EPS estimates in three of the last four quarters, including a significant +5.61% surprise in the last reported period. While these metrics point to a likely beat, the ultimate stock reaction will hinge on management's commentary regarding business conditions and future guidance.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Given the positive +0.61% Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank of #3, investors could consider Waste Connections a candidate for a short-term positive catalyst via an earnings beat.
• It is critical to analyze management's forward guidance and commentary on margins, as the forecasted 6.4% revenue growth significantly outpaces the projected 0.8% EPS growth, indicating potential cost pressures.
• Investors should note that while an earnings beat is probable, the recent 1.04% downward revision in consensus estimates suggests the quality of the beat and forward-looking statements will be paramount for a sustained positive stock reaction.