Kojamo plc: Share repurchase 23.12.2025

Kojamo executed a share repurchase on 23 Dec 2025, buying 96,000 KOJAMO shares at an average price of EUR 9.9738 for a total cost of EUR 957,484.80. After the transaction the company holds 5,670,000 treasury shares; the buyback was carried out in compliance with MAR and the Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2016/1052, signalling continued capital return support for the stock albeit at a modest scale relative to large-cap market activity.

Analysis

Market structure: Kojamo’s on‑market buyback (96,000 shares at €9.9738, €957k spent; treasury now 5.67m shares) is small in cash terms but meaningful for free‑float and EPS math — immediate beneficiaries are existing shareholders via modest EPS accretion and reduced sellable supply. The move signals management preference for buybacks over dividends or large new investments, tightening effective supply and supporting price in the next 1–3 months if buyback cadence continues. Cross‑asset effects are limited but real‑estate credit spreads could compress slightly (tighter perceived credit risk) while option implied vol on KOJAMO may drift lower as buyback reduces float liquidity.

Risk assessment: Tail risks include sudden Finnish rental regulation changes, a 100bp+ jump in Nordic rates that re‑prices NAV, or evidence buybacks are debt‑funded (which would raise leverage). Near term (days–weeks) risk is liquidity and muted newsflow; medium term (3–6 months) is earnings/occupancy surprises; long term (≥12 months) is structural vacancy or rental cap changes. Hidden dependencies: source of buyback funding (cash vs. debt), cumulative size versus market cap, and index weight shifts that could amplify flows.

Trade implications: Tactical long KOJAMO (KOJAMO:HE) on dips below €10 with a 3–6 month target +10–15% looks attractive assuming no adverse capital‑structure changes; use 3–6 month option structures to define risk. Pair opportunities: long Finnish residential names vs. short retail/office REITs vulnerable to consumption trends. Entry: act on next meaningful dip (>3%) or ahead of Q4 release; exit on hit target or material deterioration in leverage/occupancy.

Contrarian angles: Consensus may dismiss this buyback as “too small,” missing that cumulative treasury holdings (5.67m) indicate an ongoing return program which can materially reduce free float over 12 months and amplify EPS. The market may be underpricing the optionality—if buybacks accelerate to €5–10m/month it could justify a re‑rating; unintended consequence risk: accelerated leverage erosion — cut exposure if LTV rises >5pp or interest coverage falls below 2x.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Establish a 2–3% long position in Kojamo (KOJAMO:HE) on market or on dips below €10.00; set a 3–6 month price target of +10–15% and a hard stop‑loss at -10% (~€9.00).
• Implement an options‑defined trade: buy 3‑month ATM calls (or a 3×6 month call spread: buy €9 strike, sell €12 strike) sized 0.5–1% of portfolio to capture upside while limiting downside, or sell 6‑month cash‑secured €9 puts if premium ≥2% (collect income, effective entry ≤€9).
• Run a relative value pair: long KOJAMO 2% vs short Swedish retail REIT SBB (SBB.ST) 1.5% — residential cashflows are more defensive than retail; close if spread narrows/widens by >5% in 3 months.
• Monitor three concrete triggers before scaling: (1) Q4 / FY2025 report (expected within 30–45 days) - reduce if occupancy falls >2ppt QoQ; (2) balance‑sheet shifts - halve position if LTV increases >5 percentage points or interest coverage <2x; (3) any Finnish rental regulation proposals in the next 90 days — reduce exposure if new caps/controls materialize.