New Listings, Pending Sales Fall As Home Prices Hit Another All-Time High

The U.S. housing market presented mixed signals in the four weeks ending June 29, 2025, with the median sale price reaching an all-time high of $400,125 (+1.4% YoY) and median asking price up 3.9% YoY. However, new listings declined 0.7% year-over-year, marking the first drop in nearly six months, while pending sales saw their biggest decline in almost four months at -3.2%. Despite a recent dip in the average 30-year mortgage rate to 6.67%, active listings increased 14.1% YoY (the smallest increase in over a year), pushing months of supply to 4.1 and suggesting a gradual shift towards a more balanced market from previous seller dominance, as demand moderates and sellers exhibit caution.

Analysis

The U.S. housing market is exhibiting clear signs of a slowdown and a shift toward balance, despite the median sale price reaching an all-time high of $400,125 (+1.4% YoY) for the four weeks ending June 29. Key forward-looking indicators are weakening, with pending sales posting their largest decline in nearly four months (-3.2% YoY) and new listings falling for the first time in six months (-0.7% YoY), signaling seller hesitation amidst moderating demand. While a recent drop in the average 30-year mortgage rate to a multi-month low of 6.67% has supported a 16% YoY increase in purchase applications, this has not yet translated into stronger transactional activity. The market is losing its froth, evidenced by an increase in median days on market to 37 (+5 days YoY) and a decline in the share of homes sold above list price to 28.4% from 32% a year ago. Active inventory grew 14.1% YoY, its smallest increase in over a year, pushing the months of supply to 4.1, on the cusp of the 4-5 month range considered a balanced market. Significant regional divergence persists, with markets like Detroit showing strong price gains (+10.1%) while others in California and Florida are experiencing price and sales declines.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Given the conflicting signals of record-high prices and declining pending sales, investors should temper expectations for broad national home price appreciation and recognize the market's shift toward equilibrium.
• Focus on regional divergence, as markets with strong local economies like Detroit may continue to outperform, while Sunbelt markets such as those in Florida and California are exhibiting notable weakness in sales and pricing power.
• Monitor the impact of lower mortgage rates on buyer demand in the coming weeks; while applications are up, the lack of a corresponding rise in pending sales suggests affordability remains a significant hurdle, making this a critical indicator for the market's future direction.