Moving Averages of the Ivy Portfolio and S&P 500: September 2025

At the end of September, all five ETFs within the Ivy Portfolio maintained "invest" positions based on their 10-month and 12-month simple moving averages. Concurrently, the S&P 500 also recorded its fifth consecutive "invest" signal across 10-month SMA, 12-month SMA, and 10-month EMA strategies, closing notably above these averages (e.g., 10.3% above its 10-month SMA), representing the largest variance since mid-2024. This broad "invest" status across key trend-following indicators suggests sustained market momentum and a continued hold signal for risk management strategies utilizing moving averages.

Analysis

At the close of September, trend-following indicators signal continued broad-based market strength. All five components of the Ivy Portfolio—representing domestic equities (VTI), international equities (VEU), bonds (IEF), real estate (VNQ), and commodities (DBC)—maintained their "invest" positions, closing above their respective 10-month and 12-month simple moving averages (SMAs). This synchronized signal across diverse asset classes underscores a widespread risk-on environment. Concurrently, the S&P 500 registered its fifth consecutive monthly gain (+3.5%) and its fifth straight "invest" signal across all three moving average strategies tracked. The index closed significantly above these technical levels: 10.3% above its 10-month SMA, 10.9% above its 12-month SMA, and 9.2% above its 10-month EMA. These variances are the largest recorded since mid-to-late 2024, indicating not just a sustained trend but an accelerating one. While these momentum signals are historically effective for risk management in avoiding major drawdowns, the magnitude of the current deviation from the mean suggests the market is technically extended.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors utilizing momentum-based strategies should view the current data as a confirmation to maintain existing long positions across the analyzed asset classes, as the primary trend remains positive.
• Given the S&P 500 is trading at its largest variance above its key moving averages since mid-2024, it may be prudent to exercise caution when initiating new long positions, as the market is technically extended and could be susceptible to mean reversion.
• Monitor the percentage distance of each ETF from its moving average, as a narrowing of this gap, particularly below the 2% threshold mentioned in the strategy, would serve as an early warning for a potential trend reversal.
• The uniform 'invest' signal across all five diverse asset classes in the Ivy Portfolio reinforces the value of broad diversification, as the current market updraft is not confined to a single sector or asset type.