Clear Street initiates Bakkt stock with Buy rating, sees 44% upside

Bakkt Holdings (NYSE:BKKT) has received new Buy ratings from Clear Street and Benchmark, with price targets of $14 and $13 respectively, despite a significant 63% year-to-date stock decline. This positive analyst sentiment stems from Bakkt's strategic repositioning as a blockchain-native payments platform, including the divestment of non-core loyalty and custody businesses and a focus on crypto infrastructure. Analysts view the company as undervalued at 2.9x estimated 2027 EV/EBITDA, positioning it to capture market share in the $190 trillion global cross-border payments sector, following a Q2 2025 revenue increase despite sequential challenges.

Analysis

Bakkt Holdings (BKKT) is receiving renewed analyst interest, with both Clear Street and Benchmark initiating coverage with Buy ratings and price targets of $14.00 and $13.00, respectively. This bullish sentiment is driven by a significant strategic overhaul, wherein Bakkt is divesting non-core assets, including its custody business and legacy loyalty operations, to reposition itself as a focused blockchain-native payments and crypto infrastructure provider. Analysts highlight a favorable risk-reward profile, citing a valuation of 2.9x estimated 2027 EV/EBITDA and the potential to address the $190 trillion global cross-border payments market. However, this optimism is tempered by substantial headwinds, including a 63% year-to-date stock decline and a low financial health score of 1.96 out of 5. The company's Q2 2025 results were mixed, showing a year-over-year revenue increase but also a significant sequential revenue decline, underscoring persistent market challenges. Bakkt's strategic shift is further evidenced by its acquisition of a 30% stake in Japanese firm Marusho Hotta Co., Ltd. (MHT) to bolster its crypto infrastructure capabilities.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors with a high-risk tolerance and long-term horizon could view BKKT as a speculative turnaround opportunity, based on the strategic pivot and new analyst price targets that suggest significant upside.
• It is critical to monitor for tangible signs of successful execution, particularly a stabilization or reversal of the sequential revenue decline reported in Q2 2025 and any improvement in the company's weak financial health score.
• Upcoming catalysts to watch include the full divestment of the legacy loyalty business and strategic updates following the planned October 2025 shareholder meeting for Marusho Hotta, which will signal progress on the company's restructuring and infrastructure goals.