Corn futures traded mixed, with September contracts gaining marginally while others dipped, as the national cash price rose slightly. Despite weak old crop export sales showing net reductions, new crop sales were robust at 2.04 MMT, marking the second largest total for the marketing year. Global supply outlooks also point to increases, with CONAB raising Brazil's corn crop estimate by 5.03 MMT to 137 MMT, and the Rosario Grains Exchange projecting a 15-20% expansion in Argentina's corn area for 2025/26, signaling potential future supply growth.
The corn market is exhibiting conflicting signals, resulting in mixed futures performance with the September contract up ¾ cents while deferred contracts are down 1 to 2 cents. The U.S. Export Sales report presented a bifurcated view: old crop sales saw a net reduction of 88,686 MT, a marketing year low, though this is considered typical for the end of the season. In stark contrast, new crop sales were exceptionally strong at 2.04 MMT, landing at the high end of expectations and pushing the cumulative total to 13.825 MMT, the second-largest on record for this period. This robust forward demand for U.S. corn is being weighed against a bearish global supply outlook. Brazil's CONAB increased its corn crop estimate by a substantial 5.03 MMT to 137 MMT, while Argentina's Rosario Grains Exchange projects a significant 15-20% expansion in corn acreage for the 2025/26 season. These developments suggest that while near-term demand is strong, future supply growth from South America could exert downward pressure on prices in the medium to long term.
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mildly negative
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