2 IPO Stocks to Watch in 2026

The article highlights two high-profile prospective 2026 IPOs: SpaceX, which expects roughly $15.5 billion in revenue in 2025 and is quoted by Bloomberg as potentially reaching $22–24 billion in 2026 (implying ~42% growth), with reports of a private valuation near $800 billion and IPO speculation around $30 billion+; and Kraken, which filed an S-1, reported Q3 non‑GAAP revenue of $648 million (vs. sub-$304 million year‑ago) and platform transaction volume rising to ~$577 billion from $273 billion, and recently closed $800 million in funding with a $200 million committed follow-on at a $20 billion valuation. Both listings would materially expand public exposure to space-tech (including SpaceX’s AI-capable space data centers) and crypto/fintech platforms, making them important potential catalysts for sector investors ahead of their public debuts.

Analysis

Market structure: Large high‑profile IPOs (SpaceX, Kraken) expand supply of marquee growth names, benefiting exchange operators (NDAQ), primary deal underwriters and custody/trading platforms (COIN, HOOD). SpaceX’s rumored $22–24B revenue in 2026 against reported $800B private valuation implies market will reprice infrastructure/A.I. and telecom cohorts; Kraken’s expansion into equities trading compresses wallet share for Coinbase and Robinhood on high‑ARPU institutional flow.

Risk assessment: Tail risks include aggressive SEC/regulatory action against crypto platforms, export controls or a major launch failure for SpaceX, or a crypto-volume collapse that halves Kraken’s transaction revenue. Near term (days–weeks) expect volatility around S‑1 filings and funding announcements; medium (3–12 months) depends on regulatory clarity and IPO pricing; long term (2–5 years) hinges on Starlink profitability and AI‑in‑space commercialization.

Trade implications: Priority trades are long exchange/clearing exposure and defensive short/hedge positions on crypto exchange incumbents. Expect bond market pressure if large primary raises pull liquidity (sell Treasury durations tactically into large deal windows) and elevated equity vols around IPO windows — usable for option debit spreads.

Contrarian view: The market is likely overpricing SpaceX’s optionality — 30–40x revenue is inconsistent with other infrastructure comps; Kraken’s $20B private valuation understates regulatory risk. If SpaceX IPO is priced >20x 2026 revenue expect a 20–40% pullback; if Kraken achieves IPO without clearer custody/regulatory guardrails, re‑rating could be muted.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Establish a 2–3% long position in NDAQ within 1–3 months (or purchase 12‑month call spreads) to capture fees/issuance upside from a heavier IPO calendar; target 15–25% upside and trim if IPO cadence slows by >30% vs. current expectations.
• Initiate a tactical 1–2% short or put‑spread position on COIN (3–6 month put spread) to hedge exposure to Kraken competition and potential fee compression; close if COIN’s implied volatility rises >50% or Kraken S‑1 shows material differences in custody/regulatory language.
• Buy 1–2% portfolio put protection on TSLA (6–12 month) around anticipated SpaceX IPO window to hedge founder liquidity risk and potential Tesla share pressure; reduce hedge if Musk explicitly commits not to sell Tesla equity within 6 months post‑IPO.
• Avoid direct secondary purchases in SpaceX at implied valuations above 20x 2026 revenue; set a buying threshold at <=15x forward revenue (i.e., <=$330–360B market cap on $22–24B revenue) or wait for a 25–40% post‑IPO price dislocation.
• Monitor regulatory catalysts over next 60–90 days (SEC crypto guidance, Kraken S‑1 details, any DOJ/export control notices) and be prepared to increase defensive cash allocation by 5–10% if adverse rulings occur; act within 5 trading days of a definitive regulatory event.