The Army is hoping for a big new drone by 2028

The Army has issued a request for information seeking a large short/vertical takeoff and landing (S/VTOL) Group 4 drone it aims to field to a unit by fiscal 2028, positioning the platform to replace the runway-dependent MQ-1C Gray Eagle that Secretary of the Army Dan Driscoll has called obsolete. The RFI emphasizes autonomy (mission continuation if links are jammed), onboard mission software, sensors and cybersecurity, and frames the effort as a rapid, upgradeable acquisition “challenge” to industry influenced by lessons from the Russia‑Ukraine war; responses are due Jan. 8. Cost and timeline remain contingent on funding and industrial scale-up, and the FY2026 NDAA bars retiring the Gray Eagle without a replacement of equal or greater effectiveness, underscoring budgetary and capability constraints as the service balances legacy and new manned/unmanned mixes for contested environments.

Analysis

The Army has issued an RFI seeking a large Group 4 short/vertical takeoff and landing (S/VTOL) unmanned aircraft with the objective of equipping its first unit by fiscal 2028, and responses are due Jan. 8. The effort is explicitly positioned to replace the runway-dependent MQ-1C Gray Eagle, which Secretary of the Army Dan Driscoll called “obsolete,” and the service has reportedly stopped future purchases of that platform.

The RFI lists desired characteristics including onboard mission software, advanced sensors, hardened cyber measures and autonomous operations that allow mission continuation if control links are jammed or cut, lessons drawn from the Russia–Ukraine conflict. Army leadership frames the procurement as a fast “challenge” to industry to field upgradeable capability quickly rather than wait for a fully gold-plated system.

Budget and legislative constraints are principal gating risks: the service has not defined program cost and the FY2026 NDAA bars retiring the Gray Eagle without a replacement of equal or greater effectiveness, while the fiscal 2028 rollout remains contingent on congressional appropriations and industrial scale-up. The program’s emphasis on range, payload, autonomy and interoperability with manned aviation creates sustained demand for modular avionics, autonomy software and counter-jam communications but implies phased deliveries and capability trade-offs in the near term.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Monitor RFI responses (due Jan. 8) and early prototype/contract announcements as catalysts and avoid large allocations until vendor selection or prototype awards provide clarity
• Favor selective exposure to defense contractors and suppliers with demonstrable expertise in S/VTOL platforms, autonomy, sensors, avionics and anti-jam communications while avoiding firms reliant on a single legacy airframe
• Treat the fiscal 2028 timeline as contingent on Congress and the FY2026 NDAA restriction; hedge timing risk or size positions conservatively until budget appropriations and capability milestones are confirmed
• Prioritize companies with modular upgrade pathways and service/recurring revenue models, as the Army explicitly seeks an upgradeable platform rather than a one-off, gold-plated system