Reminder: Program for the publication of Yara International ASA fourth quarter 2025 results

Yara International will publish its fourth quarter 2025 results on 11 February 2026 at 08:00 CET, with a live presentation at 12:00 CET and a conference call at 13:00 CET (registration and international dial-ins provided). The release reiterates Yara’s strategic focus on low-emission ammonia and sustainable crop nutrition; company metrics highlighted include ~17,000 employees, operations in more than 60 countries and 2024 revenues of USD 13.9 billion. Investor relations contact details and disclosure information are provided for follow-up.

Analysis

Market structure: Yara’s upcoming Q4 release (11 Feb 2026) is a catalyst for re-pricing across nitrogen fertilizer, ammonia, and green-ammonia project exposure. Winners if management signals accelerating supply-constrained green ammonia contracts: YAR (OSE:YAR), specialty fertilizer peers, and Norwegian industrial contractors; losers include high-cost ammonia producers exposed to gas price inflation and commodity-only players (e.g., CF, NTR) if premium for low-emission ammonia emerges. Natural gas moves will remain the primary supply-side lever; a 10% sustained gas price swing implies ~5–10% EBITDA swing for global nitrogen producers within one quarter.

Risk assessment: Tail risks include a regulatory shock (EU carbon/energy support change) that either sharply subsidizes or penalizes low-emission ammonia, and operational setbacks at green-ammonia projects that could force large write-downs — both could move equity ±20–40% and widen credit spreads by 200–400 bps. Immediate risk (days): headline surprise in Q4 EBIT/guidance; short-term (weeks): revisions to 2026 capex guidance on green projects; long-term (years): execution risk on decarbonization and commodity cyclicality. Hidden dependency: Yara’s earnings mix sensitivity to freight and FX (NOK/EUR) can amplify or mute reported margins.

Trade implications: Event-driven positions should be size-limited and volatility-aware around the Feb 11 call. If management upsizes green-ammonia contracts or raises 2026 guidance, YAR equity could gap >15% intraday; conversely, guidance cut could trigger a similar downside and credit spread widening — structure trades to cap downside (verticals, collars). Cross-asset: watch NOK strengthening and 5y Yara spreads tightening ~25–75 bps on positive print; gas forwards and urea/ammonia curve reaction will validate commodity-link moves.

Contrarian angles: Consensus will focus on immediate EBIT and dividends; market may underprice the multi-year optionality of green ammonia contracts and digital-agriculture SaaS uplift — a successful industrial-scale contract could re-rate multiples by 20–40% over 12–24 months. Conversely, over-optimism on green project delivery schedules is common; if Q4 confirms slip to 2027+ for major projects, downside could be prolonged. Historical parallel: fertilizer cyclicality (2010–13) shows rapid sentiment reversals; trade sizes should assume 30% realized move tail capacity.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Establish a tactical 2–3% long position in Yara (OSE:YAR) into the Feb 11 Q4 release, funded by reducing cash or cyclical commodity longs; overlay a protective Mar 2026 0–15% collar (buy 15% OTM put, sell 30% OTM call) to cap downside while retaining ~15–25% upside participation for 2–6 week horizon.
• Initiate a relative-value pair: long YAR 2% vs short CF Industries (NYSE:CF) 1.5% for 3–6 months to express a view that low-emission ammonia optionality and European logistics position will command a premium; trim if YAR outperforms by +15% or CF outperforms by +10%.
• If Feb 11 implied vol for YAR options is <30%, buy an ATM straddle size 0.5–1% notional with expiry 1–2 weeks post-release (expecting >15% move); if IV >40%, sell a 10–30% OTM iron condor sized 0.5% to collect rich premium, delta-hedged daily.
• Buy Yara senior bonds or add 3–5y exposure if credit spread widens >50 bps vs Norges peers (e.g., trade entry when Yara 5y spread >150 bps), targeting capital gain from spread normalization over 6–12 months; set stop-loss if spreads widen another 100 bps.