1 Incredible Stock Warren Buffett Bought Over 30 Years Ago Is Up 150% in 3 Years, And It's About to Overtake Apple as Berkshire Hathaway's Largest Holding

Berkshire Hathaway has materially reduced its Apple position—cutting the stake by roughly three-quarters after Apple shares ran to ~33x trailing and ~30x forward earnings amid analysts projecting ~11% EPS growth over the next two years—leaving Apple still large in the portfolio but less dominant. Meanwhile American Express, unchanged in Berkshire’s book since 1995, has rallied ~150% (2023–2025) and its 22% stake is now worth about $54 billion (~5% of Berkshire), trading around a ~20x forward P/E; management’s Platinum card refresh, fee increases and buybacks underpin expectations for double-digit EPS growth and steady top-line gains. These moves signal a valuation-driven reweighting by Berkshire that favors durable, fee-driven consumer finance exposure over richly priced tech, with potential implications for positioning in Apple, Amex and Berkshire stock allocations.

Analysis

Market structure: Buffett trimming ~75% of Berkshire's AAPL stake and holding AXP steady drives a modest reallocation within mega-cap weightings: AXP (up ~150% since 2023, fwd P/E ~20) is a net beneficiary of stable insider conviction, while AAPL (33x trailing, 30x fwd) faces softening valuation support and potential supply pressure from realized selling. Index and ETF flows may rotate from concentration in Apple into financials and other large caps, raising trading volume and short-term volatility in AAPL and BRK filings around quarter-ends.

Risk assessment: Key tails include regulatory action capping card fees/interest (impacting AXP margins) or a consumer/air travel shock that compresses AXP revenue-per-card; for AAPL, a China iPhone slowdown or product-cycle miss could force a >20% repricing. Immediate (days) risk: filing-driven flows and vol spikes; short-term (weeks/months): earnings prints and monthly spend data; long-term: secular earnings growth for AXP vs. AAPL's slower EPS growth (~11% analysts expect).

Trade implications: Favor selective exposure to AXP for 12–36 months (growth via high-end cards and buybacks) and de-risk large AAPL positions—use options to hedge rather than outright sells if tax-inefficient. Consider pair trades (long AXP vs. short V/MA) to capture idiosyncratic upside in high-end spend while hedging network-volume risk; position sizing and stop-losses should reflect consumer-cyclicality.

Contrarian angles: The market overweights the headline “Buffett sold Apple” narrative and underweights his consistency on AXP — 22% stake worth ~$54bn remains ~5% of BRK market cap, implying deliberate concentration limits rather than abandonment. Historical parallels (Buffett trimming winners post re-rate) suggest short-term momentum reversals in AAPL but not necessarily permanent impairment; this creates tactical mispricings in options and relative-value spreads.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Establish a 2–3% long position in American Express (AXP) for a 12–36 month horizon given double-digit EPS potential and P/E ~20; implement via a mix of 60% equity and 40% 12-month 10–15% OTM call spreads to limit downside. Trim sizing by 50% if AXP drops >20% or if monthly billed spend growth decelerates below 3% YoY.
• Reduce concentrated Apple (AAPL) exposure: if AAPL >2–3% of portfolio, trim 30–50% now and hedge remaining exposure with 3–6 month 5–10% OTM put spreads sized to cover 25–50% of the post-trim position; fully exit hedges if AAPL misses services or iPhone revenue by >3% on the next quarterly report.
• Implement a relative-value pair: long AXP 2.0% vs short Visa (V) or Mastercard (MA) 1.0–1.5% for 6–12 months to express conviction in high-end consumer spend and pricing power; set a combined stop-loss of 12% adverse move and reassess if AXP/V relative performance reverses by 8%.
• Add a tactical defensive holding in Berkshire Hathaway BRK.B (1–2% of portfolio) on any >5% dip to capture capital-allocation optionality and embedded AXP exposure; concurrently, set regulatory monitors—if substantive CFPB/legislative card-cap proposals surface in the next 30–60 days, reduce AXP/AXP option exposure by 50% within 7 trading days.