The Week That Was, The Week Ahead: Macro & Markets, November 23, 2025

U.S. markets finished the week mixed — the S&P 500 +0.98%, Nasdaq 100 +0.77% and Dow +1.08% — as investors digested a stronger-than-expected jobs report (119,000 payrolls; unemployment 4.4%) that cut the odds of a December Fed rate cut to ~38% and kept 10-year yields near 4.15%; oil tumbled >2% on reports the U.S. is pushing a Russia‑Ukraine peace proposal, boosting airlines (Southwest +5.3%, Delta +4.7%). Nvidia beat expectations with Q3 revenue of $57bn (data center $51bn) and CEO Jensen Huang called demand “off the charts,” yet the stock fell ~3.1% as traders rotated out of large-cap tech amid renewed caution over AI buildout costs. Crypto remained volatile — Bitcoin slid below $81k midweek before rebounding to roughly $85.9k, triggering over $2bn in liquidations and $903m of ETF outflows — while Eli Lilly joined the $1tn market‑cap club on strong weight‑loss drug sales. Upcoming earnings from Li Auto, Deere, Alibaba, Dell, Zscaler, Autodesk, Workday and others will be key near‑term data points for macro and sector momentum into December.

Analysis

U.S. equity markets finished the week mixed with the S&P 500 +0.98%, Nasdaq 100 +0.77% and Dow +1.08% as investors digested a stronger-than-expected jobs report that added 119,000 positions and saw unemployment rise to 4.4%. The hotter jobs print cut the market-implied probability of a December Fed rate cut to ~38% (from ~90% a month ago), keeping 10-year yields near 4.15% and contributing to sector rotation; oil fell >2% on reports of a U.S. peace push in the Russia–Ukraine conflict, which supported airlines (Southwest +5.26%, Delta +4.65%).

Nvidia reported an outsized quarter—revenue $57bn, up 62% year-over-year, with data-center sales of $51bn—and CEO Jensen Huang said demand is "off the charts," yet NVDA shares fell ~3.1% after an initial 5% pop as traders rotated away from mega-cap tech amid renewed caution about AI buildout costs. Other chip names (MU, LRCX) and smaller GPU/data-center plays (CoreWeave -7.6%, Nebius -11%, IREN -5%) underperformed, signaling investor sensitivity to margins and capex timing in the AI cycle.

Crypto remained volatile: Bitcoin dipped below $81k midweek before rebounding to ~$85.9k (+1.43%), triggering over $2bn in liquidations and $903m of ETF outflows on Thursday, which analysts called a near-term sentiment shock. Corporate idiosyncratic moves included Eli Lilly reaching a $1tn market cap on weight-loss drug demand and Opendoor jumping 9.6% after DE Shaw disclosed a 6.4% stake; a busy upcoming earnings calendar (Li Auto, Deere, Alibaba, Dell, Zscaler, Workday, Analog Devices) and several notable ex-dividend dates (JNJ $1.30, Realty Income/BEP >5% yields) create actionable catalysts into December.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Reduce or hedge concentrated mega-cap tech exposure near term despite Nvidia's beat, using options or trimming positions as rotation and higher-for-longer rate expectations increase downside risk
• Consider tactical exposure to cyclical beneficiaries of lower oil (airlines such as LUV and DAL) while monitoring oil and geopolitical headlines that could quickly reverse the trade
• Limit crypto position sizes and enforce risk controls (size caps or stop-losses) given recent >$2bn liquidations and large ETF outflows, and treat support near $75k as tentative
• Use upcoming earnings and ex-dividend dates as entry/exit and rebalancing points—focus on earnings beats/fails from Li Auto, Alibaba, Deere and semiconductor inventories from Analog Devices to reassess sector exposure