Soybeans Back to Gains on Wednesday

Soybean futures are trading higher by 6-9 cents, with soymeal also seeing gains, as the market navigates uncertainty surrounding U.S.-China trade volumes. While China recently suspended some retaliatory tariffs, a 10% duty persists, leaving a 13% tariff on U.S. soybeans. With official export sales data delayed due to a government shutdown, analysts are estimating significant soybean sales of 0.4-2 MMT for the week of October 30th, indicating potential underlying demand.

Analysis

Soybean futures are trading higher by 6-9 cents across most contracts, with soymeal also seeing a notable gain of $5.70, indicating positive momentum in the agricultural commodities market. This upward movement occurs despite lingering trade tensions, as China has only partially suspended retaliatory tariffs, maintaining a 10% duty that results in a total 13% tariff on U.S. soybeans.

The market is currently operating without official export sales data due to a government shutdown, creating uncertainty regarding recent U.S.-China trade volumes. However, analysts are estimating significant soybean sales of 0.4-2 MMT for the week of October 30th, alongside expected meal sales of 50,000-450,000 MT and bean oil sales of 5,000-25,000 MT. These projections, coupled with active basis movement in the North and PNW, suggest robust underlying demand despite the data vacuum.

The estimated strong export demand, even with persistent tariffs, is likely contributing to the current upward price trend in soybean futures, with November 2025 contracts at $11.15 and March 2026 contracts reaching $11.36 1/4. The market's ability to absorb tariffs and show price appreciation indicates resilience and potential for continued strength if demand estimates materialize.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should closely monitor the eventual release of official export sales data to confirm analyst estimates and validate the current price strength in soybean and soymeal futures.
• Evaluate the long-term implications of China's persistent 13% tariff on U.S. soybeans, as this could continue to influence trade dynamics and market pricing despite recent partial suspensions.
• Consider potential long positions in soybean and soymeal futures, supported by the moderately positive sentiment and strong estimated demand, while remaining vigilant for shifts in trade policy or economic data.