XRP Price Prediction: Can XRP Rebound After the TD Sequential Buy Signal?

XRP slipped below $2 after a 3.2% one‑day drop, extending a weekly loss of 16.63% and erasing earlier gains as broader market pressure and thinning liquidity weigh on the token. On‑chain metrics show daily active addresses have collapsed roughly 91% since mid‑June to about 50,725 and new address growth has weakened, while wallets holding 1–10m XRP sold ~190m tokens (~$402m) in 48 hours and over 1.58bn XRP since early September. Institutional demand offers a counterbalance—Canary Capital’s XRPC and Bitwise’s XRP product drew roughly $292.6m and $105m in inflows since Nov. 13—and a TD Sequential daily buy signal hints selling fatigue, but the clear downtrend and reduced market participation leave any rebound uncertain and susceptible to abrupt moves.

Analysis

XRP fell below $2 after a 3.2% one‑day decline, extending a weekly loss of 16.63% and erasing earlier year‑to‑date gains; the chart shows a clear downtrend with lower highs and steady selling pressure since early November. On‑chain activity has deteriorated markedly: daily active addresses on the XRP Ledger dropped ~91% from 577,134 in mid‑June to 50,725, while new address growth slid from 13,527 on November 11 to 5,780 today, indicating materially thinner participation and liquidity.

Large holders have accelerated liquidation: wallets holding 1–10m XRP sold ~190m XRP (~$402m) in 48 hours and have offloaded more than 1.58bn XRP since early September, creating outsized supply pressure. Countervailing institutional demand is visible in ETF flows—Canary Capital’s XRPC drew ~$292.6m and Bitwise ~$105m since November 13 with no outflow days—which could provide price support if sustained.

Technically, a TD Sequential daily TD9 buy signal has appeared after a run of red candles; prior occurrences preceded ~14% and ~18% rebounds, but the signal arrives amid low on‑chain engagement and concentrated selling. The balance of evidence implies elevated short‑term volatility: selling fatigue may enable a bounce, yet structural weakness in participation and continued large‑holder liquidation keep the rebound probability uncertain.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Reduce directional exposure or size positions and implement downside protection (tight stops or option hedges) given the 16.63% weekly loss, collapsing active addresses, and concentrated selling by 1–10m wallets.
• Monitor ETF inflows into XRPC and Bitwise as a potential support signal; consider adding small, tactical longs only if inflows persist and price confirms a reversal with sustained close above $2 on higher volume.
• Avoid scaling meaningful new long positions until on‑chain metrics stabilize (DAA and new address growth) and large‑holder offloads abate, because thin liquidity can produce abrupt adverse moves.
• Employ defined‑risk strategies (short‑dated options or size‑limited trades) to capture a potential TD Sequential rebound while limiting downside if selling resumes.