Soybeans Holding onto Losses at Midday

Soybean futures experienced further weakness, declining 2-3 cents, with the national cash price dropping to $9.30 3/4, despite minor gains in soymeal and soy oil. This downturn comes as weekly export inspections, while up 26.9% week-over-week, were down 49.9% year-over-year with China notably absent, contributing to a 26% year-to-date decline in marketing year shipments. Ahead of anticipated NOPA crush data, Brazil's 2025/26 production forecast saw a slight reduction, though its October exports are projected higher, presenting a complex supply-demand picture for the market.

Analysis

Soybean futures continued to show weakness, declining 2-3 cents across various contracts, with the national cash price falling to $9.30 3/4. This persistent downward pressure occurred despite minor gains observed in soymeal and soy oil futures, indicating broader market concerns for the commodity. The expiration of October futures on Tuesday adds a near-term dynamic to current price discovery.

Weekly export inspections, while showing a 26.9% increase week-over-week to 994,008 MT, were significantly lower by 49.9% compared to the same week last year. The continued absence of China from the weekly data is a critical factor, contributing to a 26% year-over-year decline in marketing year shipments, which now total 4.04 MMT. This highlights persistent demand-side concerns, particularly from a major historical buyer.

On the supply side, Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production forecast saw a marginal reduction to 177.64 MMT, yet its October exports are projected to increase by 0.19 MMT to 7.31 MMT. Investors are now awaiting the NOPA crush data for September, expected Wednesday, which will provide further insight into domestic demand. The mixed international supply-demand signals create a complex and moderately negative outlook for soybean prices.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should closely monitor the upcoming NOPA crush data for September to gauge domestic demand strength and any potential shifts in China's purchasing patterns.
• Evaluate the impact of Brazil's increasing export estimates on global supply dynamics, as this could further pressure U.S. soybean prices by offsetting domestic export weakness.
• Consider hedging strategies or adjusting exposure given the moderately negative sentiment, persistent year-over-year declines in U.S. soybean exports, and the complex international supply-demand picture.