MacGregor Q4 and full year 2025 trading update based on preliminary and unaudited financials

MacGregor reported a strong FY2025 performance with orders of EUR 835.0m (‑9% vs. 2024), sales of EUR 827.6m (+4% YoY) and adjusted EBIT up 36% to EUR 100.2m, lifting the adj. EBIT margin to 12.1%. Q4/25 orders were EUR 235.8m (+32% YoY), sales EUR 199.4m (+1%) and adj. EBIT EUR 22.2m (11.2% margin). Management attributes the profit expansion to higher sales, a favorable mix and effective cost management; all figures are preliminary and unaudited, with the full Q4 report due 27 February 2026.

Analysis

Market structure: MacGregor’s Q4 order intake (+32% YoY) versus FY orders (-9% YoY) implies demand is bifurcated — near-term tender wins and retrofit/aftermarket work are growing while newbuild capex remains muted. Margin expansion to 12.1% (adj. EBIT) signals improved pricing/mix and gives MacGregor and service-heavy peers incremental pricing power; shipyards and newbuild-focused suppliers are the logical losers. Cross-asset: stronger cashflow should compress corporate spreads for EUR-denominated maritime equipment credits (expect 20–75bp tightening if trend holds) and reduce equity IV into the Feb 27 full report day.

Risk assessment: Tail risks include a renewed shipbuilding downturn (>20% order contraction over 12 months), major warranty/recall charges, or sharp FX moves (EUR/USD >5% move hurting export margins). Immediate catalyst risk: Feb 27 report can re-state accounting/backlog details; short-term (3–6 months) order cadence will decide FY26 guidance; long-term (12–24 months) outcome depends on IMO decarbonisation capex which can be either demand amplifier (retrofits) or postponement risk for owners.

Trade implications: Tactical: establish modest long exposure to marine-equipment & aftermarket exposure (see decisions) and hedge cyclicality by short high-newbuild shipbuilders. Use 1–3 month call spreads into Feb 27 to capture margin upside and avoid outright volatility. Rebalance sector weights: tilt +1–2% to industrials/services, -1–2% to shipbuilding/capital goods until orders stabilize.

Contrarian angles: Consensus will seize on FY orders -9% and underprice margin sustainability — if MacGregor sustains >12% EBIT and orders recover +10% YoY over next two quarters, equity re-rating is likely. Conversely, if adj. EBITDA margin falls >250bp or backlog conversion slows >15% QoQ, downside is material. Watch for crowding in options ahead of Feb 27 (IV spikes) and for supply-chain signs that could flip margins quickly.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Establish a 2–3% long position in MacGregor Group AB (or closest listed proxy) ahead of the Feb 27 full report to capture continued margin expansion; size limit to 2–3% NAV and trim half on a 20–30% realized upside or if adj. EBIT margin falls below 9.5% on the report.
• If MacGregor is not accessible, buy 2% long exposure to Kongsberg (KOG.OL) as a proxy for service-heavy marine equipment; pair with a 1–2% short in a large newbuild-focused shipbuilder (e.g., Hyundai Heavy 009540.KS) to express aftermarket vs newbuild divergence.
• Purchase a 3-month call spread on the chosen equity proxy (buy 5% ITM call / sell 20% OTM call) sized to 1% NAV to lever upside into Feb 27 while capping premium; exit if IV rises >40% or if report reduces adj. EBIT guidance.
• Reduce direct exposure to shipyard/newbuild names by 1–2% and redeploy into listed marine aftermarket/service suppliers or corporate bonds of high-quality maritime equipment firms if bond spreads exceed 150bp (buy bond when spread>150bp vs EUR swaps).
• Monitor three hard triggers in next 30–60 days: (1) Feb 27 full report’s backlog conversion and cashflow statements, (2) two consecutive quarterly order trends (need +10% YoY recovery to add risk), and (3) adj. EBIT margin persistence above 11.5% — act to add risk only if two of three are met.