Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq turn higher as gold powers to fresh high

US equities extended their third consecutive day of record highs, primarily fueled by Big Tech megacaps, notably Nvidia's $100 billion OpenAI investment and Oracle's confirmed role in securing TikTok's US operations. Gold reached a new all-time high on rate cut expectations, contrasting with a significant cryptocurrency sell-off. Market participants are now keenly awaiting Friday's PCE inflation data and upcoming Fed commentary for further clues on monetary policy, while monitoring the impact of new H1-B visa fees.

Analysis

US equity indices reached their third consecutive day of record highs, with the rally's momentum heavily concentrated in technology megacaps. The Nasdaq Composite led gains with a 0.7% rise, fueled by a surge in Nvidia (NVDA) stock, which hit a new record after announcing a planned investment of up to $100 billion in OpenAI. This AI-centric enthusiasm extended to ecosystem players, with chip-equipment maker ASML (ASML) rising on a Morgan Stanley upgrade and nuclear energy providers Constellation Energy (CEG) and Vistra (VST) rallying on bullish ratings tied to data center power demand. Other specific corporate catalysts included Oracle (ORCL) shares climbing 3% after being officially named a controlling investor in TikTok's US operations, a deal expected to bolster its cloud security business. Apple (AAPL) also contributed, reaching its highest level since December 2024 following a street-high price target increase from Wedbush citing a strong iPhone 17 upgrade cycle. This equity optimism contrasted sharply with a major sell-off in the cryptocurrency market, where traders liquidated over $1.5 billion in bullish wagers. Meanwhile, gold topped $3,750, pricing in expectations for two more Fed rate cuts by the end of 2025. Investors are now focused on Friday's Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index and a series of Fed speeches to validate these rate-cut bets, while also monitoring potential fallout from new $100,000 H1-B visa fees impacting tech and financial firms.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Given the market's advance is heavily concentrated in AI-related megacaps, investors should evaluate their portfolio's exposure to this theme, as demonstrated by the outperformance of Nvidia and its ecosystem partners like ASML and Constellation Energy.
• Monitor Friday's PCE inflation data and upcoming Fed commentary closely, as the current rally and record gold prices are predicated on dovish rate-cut expectations that could be challenged, potentially introducing significant market volatility.
• Pay attention to idiosyncratic risks and catalysts, such as the new $100,000 H1-B visa fee which could raise operating costs for tech firms, and the sharp divergence between the equity rally and the $1.5 billion liquidation in crypto markets, which may signal underlying shifts in risk appetite.