Garrett Motion (GTX) Reports Next Week: Wall Street Expects Earnings Growth

Garrett Motion (GTX) is scheduled to report its Q2 2025 earnings on July 24, with consensus estimates projecting EPS of $0.37, a 32.1% year-over-year increase, on revenues of $918 million, up 3.2%. While the consensus EPS estimate has been revised 6.06% higher over the past month, the company's 0% Zacks Earnings ESP, despite a Zacks Rank #2, makes a definitive earnings beat prediction challenging, even as GTX has surpassed EPS estimates in three of the last four quarters. Investors will focus on how actual results compare to these expectations and management's commentary for near-term stock performance and future outlook.

Analysis

Garrett Motion (GTX) is approaching its Q2 2025 earnings release with expectations of significant bottom-line growth, but conflicting technical indicators create uncertainty around a potential earnings surprise. The consensus projects a 32.1% year-over-year increase in EPS to $0.37 on revenues of $918 million, which are anticipated to grow a modest 3.2%. Bullish sentiment is supported by an upward revision in the consensus EPS estimate of 6.06% over the last 30 days and a history of beating EPS estimates in three of the last four quarters. However, this optimism is tempered by the company's Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) of 0%. This neutral reading, resulting from the Most Accurate Estimate being in line with the consensus, indicates a lack of last-minute upward revisions from analysts. While the stock holds a favorable Zacks Rank #2 (Buy), the model suggests this combination makes it difficult to conclusively predict an earnings beat, positioning the upcoming report as a key catalyst where management's commentary will be critical in determining the stock's trajectory beyond the initial reaction.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Given the conflicting signals of strong underlying growth expectations versus a neutral 0% Earnings ESP, investors should be prepared for volatility around the July 24 report and scrutinize management's forward guidance for a clearer directional thesis.
• While the company has a track record of beating estimates in three of the last four quarters, the lack of a positive ESP suggests a pre-earnings trade carries elevated uncertainty, warranting caution for those considering initiating a new position.
• Investors should note the significant divergence between expected earnings growth (+32.1% YoY) and revenue growth (+3.2% YoY), and should focus on the earnings call for commentary on margin drivers and the sustainability of this profitability trend.