Social Stability Risks In Serbia To Decline As Protesters Shift Focus On Elections Expected In 2027

Social stability risks in Serbia are projected to decline as the anti-government protest movement shifts its focus towards contesting upcoming elections, likely losing momentum and broad support. The incumbent SNS-led coalition is strongly favored to retain power, polling at 53-55.1%, while the new protest-backed political grouping garners 5-9%. This transition is expected to de-escalate street tensions, reinforcing the current political landscape and limiting the risk of significant market disruption, though general political volatility in Serbia will persist.

Analysis

Social stability risks in Serbia are forecast to decline through late 2025 and 2026 as the current anti-government protest movement transitions into a political entity. This strategic pivot towards contesting elections is expected to diminish the movement's momentum and broad-based support, which peaked when it was a non-partisan "big tent" movement. The incumbent SNS-led coalition government, headed by President Aleksandar Vucic, is strongly positioned to retain power. Recent polling data from Ipsos indicates the coalition commands 53.0% to 55.1% of the electorate, a figure broadly consistent with its 54.8% result in the 2023 elections and only a modest decline from pre-crisis levels. In contrast, the nascent political list formed from the protest movement polls between just 5.0% and 9.0%. The opposition remains fragmented, and the formation of a united front is considered highly unlikely, limiting any credible challenge to the ruling party. Consequently, the political landscape is expected to stabilize, with President Vucic likely to call for elections in late 2027 following the Expo 2027. For external stakeholders, this projects a continuation of the status quo, as the SNS government is a "known quality," and major disruptions to investor relations or projects like the Expo are not anticipated.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should view the expected transition of Serbian protests into a formal political movement as a de-risking event for the country's stability outlook, as the incumbent government is highly likely to retain power and maintain policy continuity.
• Monitor the protest movement's ability to gain political traction ahead of elections; its failure to consolidate support or form alliances, as anticipated, would reinforce the thesis of declining social instability.
• While the acute risk of disruption is fading, a persistent level of political volatility, characteristic of Serbia's recent history, should remain factored into the country risk premium for any Serbian assets.
• Given the assessment that large-scale projects like Expo 2027 will proceed and external stakeholder relations will remain normal, investments tied to government-backed infrastructure may be insulated from the residual political noise.