First Week of EXEL February 2026 Options Trading

Selling the EXEL $40.00 strike price put option offers a potential 11.50% return on cash commitment (17.13% annualized) if it expires worthless, with a 62% probability based on current data. Conversely, selling the $42.00 strike price call option against owned EXEL shares could yield a 17.05% total return if the stock is called away, but carries a 43% chance of expiring worthless, resulting in a 13.55% return (20.19% annualized); implied volatility for the put and call options are 46% and 48%, respectively, while the trailing twelve month volatility is 39%.

Analysis

The analysis focuses on options strategies for Exelixis Inc (EXEL), currently trading at $40.58 per share. Selling a cash-secured put at the $40.00 strike price, with a bid of $4.60, presents an opportunity to acquire shares at an effective cost basis of $35.40, should the option be assigned. There is a 62% probability, based on current analytical data, that this out-of-the-money put (approximately 1% discount to current price) expires worthless, resulting in an 11.50% return on the cash commitment, or 17.13% annualized, termed YieldBoost. Alternatively, for investors holding or purchasing EXEL shares at $40.58, selling a covered call at the $42.00 strike price (approximately 4% out-of-the-money) with a bid of $5.50 could yield a total return of 17.05% if the stock is called away at the February 2026 expiration. If this call contract expires worthless, an event with a 43% assessed probability, the premium collected would represent a 13.55% return (20.19% annualized YieldBoost). Notably, the implied volatility for these options (46% for the put, 48% for the call) is elevated compared to EXEL's actual trailing twelve-month historical volatility of 39%, indicating that options are pricing in greater future price fluctuations than recently observed, a factor that benefits option sellers through higher premiums but also suggests increased perceived risk or expected price swings.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors interested in acquiring Exelixis Inc. shares could consider selling the $40.00 strike put, aiming for a potential cost basis of $35.40 or an 11.50% return if the option expires unexercised, recognizing the 62% assessed probability of such an outcome.
• Current Exelixis Inc. shareholders, or those purchasing at $40.58, might evaluate selling the February 2026 $42.00 covered call to generate income, potentially achieving a 17.05% total return if called, or retaining shares plus a 13.55% premium if the option expires worthless, while acknowledging this strategy limits upside potential beyond $42.00.