Goldman Sachs Just Delivered Fantastic News For 2 Major Warren Buffett Stocks (and the Rest of Berkshire Too!)

Goldman Sachs has pushed its peak-oil estimate out to 2040, forecasting global oil demand to rise from about 103.5 million barrels per day last year to 113 million bpd by 2040—driven by jet fuel, AI data-center power needs and slower EV uptake—a view broadly echoed by recent IEA and Exxon projections. The longer demand runway is constructive for energy equities even as Goldman expects near-term WTI weakness (around $53/barrel next year) amid new supply, underscoring continued price volatility for pure-play oil names. The report highlights Berkshire Hathaway as a lower-volatility way to capture exposure to the extended oil cycle via large stakes in Occidental (265m shares, ~ $11bn) and Chevron (122m shares, ~ $19bn), plus energy subsidiaries and pipelines that each add more than $1bn to annual operating income, making Berkshire a pragmatic backdoor play on continued fossil-fuel demand.

Analysis

Goldman Sachs has pushed its global "peak oil" timing out to 2040 from its prior 2035 view, projecting crude consumption rising from last year’s 103.5 million barrels per day to 113 million bpd by 2040, driven explicitly by stronger jet-fuel demand, rapidly expanding power needs for AI data centers and a slower-than-expected electric-vehicle transition. The bank acknowledges its forecast is above consensus, but the IEA and ExxonMobil have likewise moved their demand pivots later (IEA to 2050; Exxon expects oil and gas to remain the largest sources of primary energy in 25 years), reinforcing a longer structural runway for fossil-fuel demand.

Goldman also expects near-term WTI weakness—an average near $53/barrel next year due to incoming supply—highlighting continued price volatility that will pressure drilling and refining margins despite longer-term demand growth. Berkshire Hathaway provides differentiated exposure: roughly $11 billion in Occidental and $19 billion in Chevron plus wholly owned pipeline and energy-service assets, with Berkshire reporting each of its gas-pipeline and non-utility energy businesses contributing over $1 billion to annual operating income (about 5% of GAAP operating income).

That positioning implies Berkshire can capture upside from a lengthened oil cycle with less day-to-day commodity beta than pure E&P names; sector ETFs (XLE, VDE) remain straightforward alternatives for diversified energy exposure. Investors should weigh extended demand signals against near-term price headwinds and the idiosyncratic volatility of pure-play oil equities when choosing allocation and hedging strategies.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Consider adding or maintaining exposure to Berkshire Hathaway as a lower-volatility way to benefit from a longer oil-demand run given its large stakes in Occidental and Chevron and stable pipeline/service cash flows
• Use broad energy ETFs such as XLE or VDE for diversified sector exposure rather than concentrated E&P positions, which will be more sensitive to short-term WTI moves
• Avoid increasing unhedged exposure to high‑beta exploration and production stocks ahead of expected near‑term WTI weakness (~$53/bbl next year) or implement hedges to protect against price swings
• Monitor key indicators—WTI price trajectory, announced new supply volumes, AI/data‑centre power growth and EV adoption rates—and be prepared to rebalance if consensus demand timing shifts materially