BLS Cancels US October CPI Report, Will Publish Some Data Later

The Bureau of Labor Statistics canceled its October CPI report after it was unable to retroactively obtain some price data that was not collected during the U.S. government shutdown; BLS said it can retrieve parts of the missing data and will publish October values “where possible” in the November release. The November CPI report has been rescheduled for Dec. 18. Because that release comes after the Federal Reserve’s final meeting of the year, policymakers and markets will not have the November inflation read ahead of that decision, which could complicate near‑term assessment of inflation momentum.

Analysis

The Bureau of Labor Statistics canceled its October Consumer Price Index report because it was unable to retroactively obtain some price data that was not collected during the U.S. government shutdown; BLS said it can recover parts of the missing data and will publish October values "where possible" in the November release. The November CPI report has been rescheduled for December 18, which is after the Federal Reserve’s final policy meeting of the year. The timing means policymakers and markets will not have the November inflation read before that Fed decision, a gap the BLS itself and market signals characterize as a complicating factor for assessing near‑term inflation momentum. Market sentiment in the provided signals is moderately negative and uncertain, with a market impact score of 0.45, indicating a modest but nontrivial risk that the data gap will increase volatility around the Fed meeting and subsequent data releases.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Reduce unilateral duration exposure and consider hedging existing rate-sensitive positions ahead of the Fed meeting given the lack of a November CPI read, Monitor the December 18 release closely and avoid initiating large directional positions in rate-sensitive sectors until the November CPI and any retroactive October values are published, Use option-based or other short-term hedges to protect against elevated volatility around the Fed decision and the delayed CPI publication, Track Fed communications and secondary indicators of inflation momentum to fill the information gap but refrain from changing strategic allocations until the delayed CPI information is available