Pfizer Is Still Struggling to Replace Its COVID Revenue. Here's What We Could See From the Pharmaceutical Giant in 2026.

Pfizer faces a near-term revenue headwind as COVID-related sales have plunged and U.S. regulatory moves plus patent loss of Xeljanz next year mean 2026 sales growth will likely be weak—through the first nine months of 2025 revenue fell about 2% to ~$45 billion while EPS rose 3% to $2.56—but cost cuts and a three-year tariff exemption should help margins. The company is investing in pipeline catalysts that could drive a recovery: a promising mRNA influenza vaccine showed superior phase‑3 results versus a market leader and may advance next year, PF‑4404 (an investigational dual‑mechanism cancer drug) is entering multiple new trials with plans to target ~10 indications, and MET‑097i (an acquired obesity candidate) delivered competitive phase‑2 weight‑loss data with potential once‑monthly dosing and could start phase‑3 in 2026. Given these dynamics, Pfizer’s shares look like a value play—trading at about 8.7x forward earnings with a 6.6% forward yield versus a healthcare average of 18.3—but near‑term performance will hinge on clinical progress and commercialization of its new vaccines and therapies.

Analysis

Pfizer's COVID-related sales have fallen sharply and the article cites U.S. regulatory moves that make vaccination of healthy individuals harder, suggesting COVID franchise revenue could decline further. Through the first nine months of 2025 the company reported revenue down ~2% year‑over‑year to about $45 billion while EPS rose 3% to $2.56, aided by cost cuts and a three‑year tariff exemption; however Xeljanz losing exclusivity next year and vaccine weakness point toward likely weak sales growth in 2026.

Pipeline advancement is the principal near‑term upside: Pfizer's mRNA influenza candidate produced significantly fewer flu‑like illnesses than a market leader in a phase 3 trial and is likely to progress next year, PF‑4404 is slated for seven new trials including planned phase 3 studies with a target of ~10 indications by end of next year, and MET‑097i completed two phase 2 trials showing competitive weight loss, favorable tolerability and potential once‑monthly dosing with phase 3 possible in 2026. These assets represent potential multi‑year growth drivers if clinical and regulatory outcomes are positive.

Market valuation reflects both risk and income: shares trade at about 8.7x forward earnings versus the healthcare average of 18.3 and carry a 6.6% forward dividend yield, making the stock attractive to yield‑seeking, patient investors. Near‑term performance will be binary and hinge on vaccine demand trends, PF‑4404 and MET‑097i clinical readouts, and the timing/impact of Xeljanz generics, so upside requires successful execution on multiple fronts.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Consider initiating or adding a modest, risk‑sized position on meaningful weakness to capture the 6.6% forward yield and upside from pipeline catalysts, but limit allocation given binary clinical and patent risks
• De‑risk material new purchases until near‑term clinical clarity: prioritize the mRNA influenza regulatory path and trial starts/results for PF‑4404 and MET‑097i as primary catalysts
• Monitor the timing and revenue impact of Xeljanz losing exclusivity and changes to U.S. COVID vaccination guidance as triggers to reassess revenue forecasts and position sizing
• If maintaining a larger stake, employ downside protection (options or stop limits) ahead of key readouts and regulatory milestones and reassess exposure after confirmed approvals or clear commercialization plans