Annual survey shows drop in Thanksgiving dinner cost for 2025

The American Farm Bureau Federation’s 40th annual survey pegs the cost of a 10-person Thanksgiving dinner at $55.18 for 2025, down $2.90 from last year and marking the third consecutive annual decline after price spikes in 2021–22 (the 2022 basket was nearly $9 higher). The basket—compiled by volunteer shoppers in all 50 states and Puerto Rico who seek best regular prices but exclude coupons—shows notable item-level divergence: turkey prices fell to $21.50 from $25.67, while sweet potatoes rose more than a third to $4.00. The AFBF notes the nominal cost is roughly double the $24.16 paid in 1987 but, when inflation-adjusted, that 1987 meal would equal about $68 today, indicating real grocery prices for this basket have eased.

Analysis

The American Farm Bureau Federation's 40th annual Thanksgiving-basket survey pegs the 2025 cost for a 10-person meal at $55.18, down $2.90 year-over-year and marking the third consecutive annual decline after spikes in 2021–22 (the 2022 basket was nearly $9 higher). The survey is compiled from volunteer shoppers in all 50 states and Puerto Rico who search for the best regular prices but are instructed to exclude special coupons and combined-purchase promotions, which affects comparability with consumer-reported spending.

Item-level data show notable divergence: turkey cost fell materially to $21.50 from $25.67 last year, while sweet potatoes rose by more than one-third to $4.00, and most other line items moved by less than $1. The nominal basket is roughly double the $24.16 paid in 1987, but when adjusted for inflation that 1987 meal would equal about $68 today, implying real prices for this specific basket have eased.

The data signal modest relief in grocery-basket inflation that could translate to margin relief for scale-sensitive grocers and processors, but the asymmetric item moves (protein down, produce up) indicate ongoing commodity volatility. Investors should weigh seasonal/supply drivers, the survey's best-price methodology, and upcoming official food-at-home inflation prints before changing material portfolio allocations.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Favor selective exposure to large grocery retailers and scale-oriented packaged-food processors that can capture margin relief from lower turkey/protein costs while avoiding smaller players with weaker procurement leverage
• Monitor official CPI food-at-home data, poultry supply and feed-cost indicators, and regional produce weather/acreage reports to assess whether the turkey decline and sweet-potato increase are transient or structural, and use hedges if taking directional exposure
• Do not overreact to a single AFBF basket given its best-price, no-coupon methodology—maintain defensive position sizing and liquidity through the holiday season in case consumer behavior or promotional activity shifts unexpectedly