American Tower to Report Q2 Earnings: What to Expect From the Stock?

American Tower (AMT) is anticipated to report a year-over-year decline in Q2 2025 revenues and Adjusted Funds From Operations (AFFO) per share when it releases results on July 29. Consensus estimates project an 11% revenue drop to $2.58 billion and a 7.2% decrease in AFFO per share to $2.59, primarily driven by elevated churn in U.S. & Canada property segments and high interest costs, despite expected revenue growth in its Services and Data Centers segments. However, Zacks' quantitative model predicts a likely AFFO beat, supported by a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #2.

Analysis

American Tower Corporation (AMT) faces a mixed outlook for its second-quarter 2025 earnings release, with consensus estimates pointing to significant year-over-year declines but quantitative models suggesting a potential upside surprise. Projections indicate an 11% drop in quarterly revenues to $2.58 billion and a 7.2% decrease in adjusted funds from operations (AFFO) per share to $2.59. These anticipated declines are primarily attributed to headwinds in the core Total Property segment, where revenue is forecast to fall to $2.50 billion from $2.85 billion a year prior, driven by elevated churn in the U.S. & Canada and the impact of high interest costs. However, this weakness is partially offset by strong expected growth in the company's other business lines. The Services segment revenue is projected to climb to $74.9 million from $47 million, while the Data Centers segment is expected to increase revenue to $257.7 million from $231 million, capitalizing on secular demand from cloud computing and 5G deployment. Critically, a proprietary model predicts a likely AFFO beat, supported by a positive Earnings ESP of +1.08% and a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy), which aligns with AMT's history of surpassing consensus AFFO estimates in three of the last four quarters.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Given the conflict between negative YoY consensus estimates and the model's prediction of an AFFO beat, investors could consider the potential for a positive earnings surprise as a short-term catalyst.
• Focus on the revenue growth and management commentary for the Services and Data Centers segments, as outperformance here could signal a successful diversification away from the challenged U.S. & Canada property business.
• Monitor management's forward-looking guidance on property segment churn and the impact of interest costs, as any sign of stabilization in these areas could be a significant long-term positive, while continued weakness may cap upside potential.