Invitation to presentation of Dustin's interim report on April 15

Dustin Group will host a conference call on April 15 at 09:30 CET to present its interim report for Q2 2025/26. CEO Samuel Skott and CFO Julia Lagerqvist will present the results and take questions; the call will be in English and presentation materials will be posted on the Investors section of dustingroup.com prior to the call.

Analysis

This event is a control point for management to reframe the story — expect the most actionable information to be: services/recurring revenue mix, gross-margin bridge (hardware vs services), and working-capital cadence (inventory days and DSO). A beat driven by services mix expansion would be high-conviction evidence that Dustin is converting lower-growth hardware flows into annuity-like revenue, which can re-rate the multiple by 1–2 turns in 6–12 months given typical SaaS-like margin expansion pathways.

Conversely, an inventory-driven beat (thin promotions, one-off vendor buys) is lower quality and likely to be erosive to FCF in the following quarter once normalization occurs; watch for inventory aging and markdown reserves as a leading indicator of a reversion. On the supply-chain side, any mention of vendor terms or exclusive distribution wins is a second-order accelerant: better vendor economics compress competitor room to compete on price and can trigger consolidation among smaller Nordic VARs within 12–24 months.

Tail risks are macro-driven: an enterprise IT capex pullback in the Nordics or a SEK/FX shock would hit margins and working capital simultaneously, flipping a positive services narrative into a cash squeeze within 60–90 days. The immediate catalyst window is days (post-call repricing), medium-term is 3–9 months (guidance revisions and working-capital realization), and the structural call is 12–24 months (shift to services and vendor consolidation).

Key Decisions for Investors

• Long Dustin (DUSTIN.ST) 1–6 month exposure: buy outright equity or a 3–6 month call spread sized for 2–4% portfolio risk. Rationale: positive services mix or improved vendor terms could re-rate by 10–20% quickly; downside is inventory-led FCF weakness. Set stop at -25% from entry or hedge with put protection if call tone is defensive.
• Pair trade — Long Dustin (DUSTIN.ST) vs Short a global hardware distributor (e.g., SNX) for 3–9 months: overweight Nordic services growth vs global distribution. Rationale: relative performance if Dustin demonstrates higher recurring revenue growth and margin stability; reward asymmetry 1.5–2x if services adoption is confirmed, with short offering partial hedge versus cyclical capex shocks.
• Event hedge: buy a short-dated (1–2 month) protective put if exposed through other Nordic tech positions — target strike near current price to cap immediate downside from an earnings surprise. Cost is insurance for potential inventory or FX-driven shocks that could compress NAV quickly.