Apple and Samsung smartphone growth to take hit from tariff uncertainty: Counterpoint Research

Counterpoint Research sharply reduced its 2025 global smartphone shipment growth forecast to 1.9% from 4.2%, citing tariff uncertainties and weakened demand in North America, Europe, and parts of Asia. Apple's 2025 shipment growth forecast was cut to 2.5% from 4%, while Samsung's is now projected at 0% growth versus a prior 1.7% increase; these revisions reflect exposure to the US market and broader demand concerns. Huawei is a notable exception, with an expected 11% shipment growth in 2025 due to easing component sourcing and strong domestic sales.

Analysis

Counterpoint Research has significantly revised its 2025 global smartphone shipment growth forecast downwards to 1.9% year-on-year, a sharp reduction from the previous 4.2%, primarily attributing this to renewed uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariff policies and weakening consumer demand across North America, Europe, and parts of Asia. This revision directly impacts the outlook for major market players, with Apple's (AAPL) 2025 shipment growth forecast cut to 2.5% from 4%, and Samsung's projection slashed from a 1.7% rise to 0% growth. While Apple's downgraded forecast is linked to the upcoming iPhone 16 series and purchasing patterns in emerging markets, its heavy reliance on China for manufacturing (90% of iPhones) and recent production shifts to India subject it to geopolitical pressures, including direct comments from President Trump regarding U.S. manufacturing. Shipments, an indicator of anticipated vendor demand, reflect these concerns. In contrast, Huawei emerges as a potential outlier, with an expected 11% year-on-year shipment growth in 2025, benefiting from easing component sourcing bottlenecks and a resurgence in its domestic Chinese market fueled by semiconductor advancements.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should re-evaluate exposure to Apple and Samsung given the sharply reduced shipment growth forecasts, which reflect both U.S. tariff uncertainties and weakening global demand particularly in key Western markets.
• Monitor developments in U.S. trade policy and potential tariff implementations closely, as these represent a significant ongoing risk factor for smartphone manufacturers with extensive Chinese supply chains, such as Apple.
• Consider the divergent outlook for Huawei, whose projected 11% shipment growth contrasts starkly with Apple and Samsung, potentially signaling market share shifts within China and impacting the competitive landscape.
• Assess the geopolitical risks associated with Apple's manufacturing diversification, such as its expansion in India, which, while aimed at mitigating China exposure, faces political scrutiny that could create operational headwinds.