A record number of people are expected to travel for the holidays. Here's what to know in Wisconsin

AAA projects a record holiday travel surge in late 2025 with more than 122 million Americans traveling at least 50 miles—nearly 3 million more than 2024—with roughly 109 million expected to travel by car, about 8 million by air and ~5 million via other modes. Domestic air travel could top 8 million for the period, signaling a return to pre-pandemic demand patterns; Milwaukee Mitchell International Airport year-to-date passenger traffic through October fell to just under 5.0 million versus ~5.4 million a year earlier. Lower fuel costs should support road trips: GasBuddy forecasts a national average of $2.79/gal on Christmas Day (down from $3.00 in 2024), reducing travel cost pressures and supporting consumer mobility over the season.

Analysis

Market structure: The AAA projection (122M total holiday travelers; ~109M by car, ~8M air) explicitly favors ground-transport and travel-services winners: car-rental (HTZ, CAR), roadside retailers (ORLY, AZO), hotels (MAR, HLT) and OTA/booking platforms (BKNG). Upstream E&P and crude-linked names are the most exposed to downside from a nationally‑lower gasoline baseline (~$2.79/gal projected vs $3.00 LY), which compresses near‑term cash flows if sustained into Q1 2026.

Competitive dynamics & supply/demand: Car travel share (~89%) versus air (~6.6%) implies material reallocation of discretionary travel spend; rental-fleet utilization >90% would sustain pricing power (rental rate +10–20% vs seasonal baseline). Airlines gain pax but limited upside per seat given capacity caps; regional airports like MKE could see a 5–10% YoY traffic bump versus current YTD declines, improving concession and parking revenues.

Cross-asset and risk signals: Lower gas exerts downward pressure on WTI and refiners; if WTI falls >5% in 30 days, expect energy equities to lag while consumer discretionary travel names outperform. Fixed income: a temporary lift in service CPI (0.05–0.2% m/m) from travel could modestly steepen front-end yields; FX: slight USD weakness in a risk‑on scenario.

Tail risks & catalysts: Weather disruption, airline operational failures, OPEC+ surprise cuts, or a spike in WTI above $85/bl would reverse the constructive thesis. Monitor TSA/airport passenger data (weekly), GasBuddy spot price (threshold $2.90), and OPEC meeting outcomes within the next 30–90 days as primary catalysts.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Establish a 2–3% long position in Marriott (MAR) equity from now through Feb 2026 to capture elevated holiday + winter bookings; if RevPAR or MAR weekly bookings growth <0% YoY for two consecutive weeks, cut to half position; target +12–18% upside, take profits at +15%.
• Build a 1–2% tactical long in Hertz (HTZ) via a Jan 2026 call-spread (buy one ITM, sell a higher strike ~30% OTM) to capture rental-rate tailwinds; exit or hedge if fleet utilization reported <85% or average daily rental rates fall >10% YoY.
• Pair trade: go 1.5% long Delta Air Lines (DAL) cash and 1% short APA Corporation (APA) cash through Mar 2026 — thesis: passenger recovery + lower fuel -> airlines outperform E&P. Unwind if WTI > $85/bl for two consecutive weeks or TSA passenger counts drop >5% MoM.
• Deploy a short-duration options trade: buy Dec 2025 call spread on Uber (UBER) sized 0.5–1% notional to benefit from holiday ride-hail demand; hedge by selling a small amount of OTM calls post-holiday. Close within 10 trading days after Dec 31 or if daily bookings normalize to pre-holiday trend.