US cancels release of CPI report for October because of government shutdown

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics said it canceled the release of October's consumer price index because the recent government shutdown prevented collection of the survey data and those survey components cannot be retroactively gathered; the agency expects to publish October values for series using nonsurvey data alongside the November CPI, which will now be released Dec. 18 (moved from Dec. 10). The October employment report was also canceled, though October nonfarm payrolls will be published with November on Dec. 16, and the October unemployment rate (derived from the household survey) will not be available. The disruptions and timing shifts — with the Employment Cost Index for Q3 set for Dec. 10 — create a temporary gap in key inflation and labor-market readings that markets and policymakers use to assess monetary policy and labor-market slack.

Analysis

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics canceled the release of October's Consumer Price Index because the recent government shutdown prevented collection of survey data and those survey components cannot be retroactively gathered, the agency said. BLS said it can retroactively acquire most nonsurvey data and will publish October values for those series alongside the November CPI on Dec. 18, moving the CPI release from Dec. 10. This cancellation follows a similar suspension of October's employment report.

The BLS will publish October nonfarm payrolls together with November on Dec. 16, but the October unemployment rate derived from the household survey will not be available; data collection relies on physical retailer and household visits and telephone calls that were disrupted by the shutdown. The Employment Cost Index for Q3 remains scheduled for Dec. 10 and is identified in the article as the broadest measure of labor costs and a predictor of core inflation. The reported sentiment is moderately negative with an uncertain tone and a market-impact score of 0.5.

The information gap for October CPI and the missing unemployment rate heighten uncertainty for policymakers and markets by removing a month of high-frequency inflation and labor-market signal. Clustering of ECI (Dec. 10), combined payrolls (Dec. 16) and the shifted CPI (Dec. 18) concentrates event risk and increases the probability of outsized market moves and revisions when previously dispersed data is released together. Investors should treat mid-December data as a single, higher-impact informational event rather than isolated releases.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Reduce directional macro exposure and avoid initiating large rate- or CPI-sensitive positions ahead of the Dec. 10–18 cluster of releases,
• Use targeted event hedges (short-dated options, put protection, or credit hedges) to limit downside from volatility when combined payrolls and the shifted CPI are published in mid-December,
• Monitor the Dec. 10 Employment Cost Index closely as a high-quality signal of labor-cost-driven core inflation and adjust duration and real-rate exposure if the ECI meaningfully surprises consensus