2 Stocks That Can Turn $100,000 Into $1 Million by 2035

The piece highlights two speculative high-upside stock ideas: Rivian (market cap ~$20B) and NuScale Power (market cap ~$6B). Rivian trades at ~3x price-to-sales, is up >20% YTD, expects ~28% sales growth next year versus Tesla's ~15%, and plans three new vehicle launches in 2026; the author argues 1,000% upside is feasible given its smaller scale. NuScale, the only small modular reactor firm with NRC approval, has reactors under construction and a TVA agreement that could see a first system by 2030, but its technology remains unproven and carries binary risk despite the large theoretical upside.

Analysis

Market structure: Winners will be mid‑cap EV builders (RIVN) and battery/raw‑material suppliers (copper, lithium) if Rivian scales to $30–50k vehicles; losers include premium EV pricing power (TSLA multiple compression) and incumbent ICE OEMs in the $30–50k segment. Increased competition at lower price points signals higher vehicle supply vs. demand elasticity through 2026–2028, pressuring OEM margins by an estimated 200–600 bps if volumes outpace ASP recovery. Cross‑assets: stronger EV buildout lifts commodity prices (copper +5–15% cyclical), raises capex needs (upward pressure on BBB bonds spreads), and pushes volatility in equity options for RIVN/SMR.

Risk assessment: Tail risks include large dilution (RIVN) or catastrophic regulatory/technical setbacks (SMR); low‑probability but high‑impact events are an unsecured capital raise >$3–5B or NRC permit reversal delaying SMR beyond 2030. Near term (days–months): earnings, delivery cadence and cash‑burn headlines; medium (12–24 months): supply chain and 2026 model launches; long term (3–7 years): market share and SMR commercial ramp. Hidden dependencies: access to low‑cost capital, battery cell supply contracts, grid interconnection timelines and offtake PPAs for SMR.

Trade implications: Direct: size RIVN equity exposure tactically (2–5% portfolio) and use 18–36 month call spreads to express asymmetric upside while capping cost; treat SMR as a 0.5–1% high‑convexity allocation via long‑dated call spreads to 2030. Pair trade: long RIVN / short TSLA (equal‑dollar RIVN, 20% notional TSLA) to isolate small‑cap EV upside without broad EV beta; hedge with 25–35% OTM puts or collars around major catalysts (quarterly deliveries, 2026 launches). Rotate 3–6% from legacy autos/utilities into EV suppliers and battery miners if RIVN delivery growth > consensus by >10% in two consecutive quarters.

Contrarian angles: Consensus underplays dilution and execution complexity—RIVN needs sustained gross margin recovery to justify 10x+ sales multiple; SMR’s NRC lead is necessary but not sufficient (of take and financing risk remain). Market may be underpricing the probability of a Tesla margin squeeze if mass‑market competitors hit price points under $50k. Historical parallel: early solar tech winners were few despite subsidy tailwinds—expect binary outcomes and size positions accordingly (small, convex stakes with strict stop rules).

Key Decisions for Investors

• Establish a tactical 2–3% long position in RIVN equity now; set a hard stop‑loss at -35% from entry and scale to 5% total only if RIVN posts two consecutive quarters with deliveries >= consensus+10% within the next 12 months.
• Purchase 18–36 month RIVN call spreads (debit spreads) sized to 1–2% portfolio risk to capture 2026 model launches upside while capping loss; unwind or roll if RIVN EV/ sales multiple rises above 8x or stock rallies +100%.
• Allocate 0.5–1% portfolio to SMR via long‑dated (to 2030) call spreads rather than outright equity; require TVA construction milestone or a signed PPA/DOE funding tranche within 12 months before adding exposure—otherwise cut position to zero.
• Implement a pair trade: go long RIVN (equal‑dollar) and short TSLA at 20% of the long notional to express relative small‑cap EV upside; hedge with 25% OTM puts on the net position and rebalance if RIVN up +100% or TSLA down -20%.