Cisco Earnings Preview: Stock Price Nearing Its April 2000 All-Time High

Cisco Systems (NASDAQ:CSCO) is scheduled to report fiscal Q4 ’25 earnings on August 13, 2025, with analyst consensus anticipating $0.98 EPS, $14.6 billion in revenue, and $4.97 billion in operating income, reflecting year-over-year growth of 13%, 7%, and 14% respectively. This quarter will notably integrate the Splunk acquisition into Cisco’s organic financial results, while the company's AI revenue, despite being a small portion of overall sales, exceeded expectations in fiscal Q3 ’25. The report comes as Cisco aims to accelerate its revenue growth from a 2% average over the last five years to an estimated 5% average over the next three years.

Analysis

Cisco Systems is approaching its fiscal Q4 2025 earnings report with consensus expectations set for significant year-over-year growth, including a 13% increase in EPS to $0.98, a 7% rise in revenue to $14.6 billion, and a 14% lift in operating income to $4.97 billion. This report marks a pivotal moment as it will be the first to incorporate the recent Splunk acquisition into the company's organic financial results, providing a clearer picture of the combined entity's performance. The results will be scrutinized in the context of an expected acceleration in growth, with forward three-year revenue estimates averaging 5%, a notable increase from the 2% average growth observed over the past five years. While the company's artificial intelligence business remains a small component of its overall revenue at approximately $1 billion, its outperformance against expectations in the prior quarter suggests it is a key emerging category to monitor for future growth contributions.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should closely examine the post-acquisition organic growth figures to assess the success of the Splunk integration and the core business's underlying momentum.
• Pay close attention to the performance and forward guidance for the AI revenue stream, as continued outperformance in this segment could serve as a primary catalyst for achieving the projected 5% average revenue growth.
• Given the strong double-digit growth expectations for earnings and operating income, investors should assess whether the current stock price already reflects this optimism, and consider the risk of a negative reaction if the company fails to meet these elevated consensus targets.