Prediction: 2 Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stocks Will Be Worth More Than Palantir Technologies in 3 Years

Palantir's stock has surged ~150% over the past year to a $369 billion market value, and the author argues AppLovin ($176B) and Shopify ($192B) could each top that figure by 2028: AppLovin benefits from a best‑in‑class Axon ML ad engine and a new e‑commerce ad platform that hit a $1 billion revenue run rate, with Wall Street forecasting ~53% earnings CAGR over three years—implying a 110% market‑cap rise to ~$370B (≈28% annualized) as its multiple falls from ~66x to ~39x; Shopify, a leader in omnichannel commerce using AI for conversational shopping and merchant automation, faces a 32% earnings CAGR forecast and would need ~93% upside (≈24% annualized) to reach ~$370B but is starting from a much higher ~108x multiple, making AppLovin the preferred pick on valuation grounds. Disclosure: the author holds positions in Palantir and Shopify and the Motley Fool holds/recommends these stocks.

Analysis

Palantir Technologies has rallied roughly 150% over the past year to a $369 billion market capitalization, and the article posits that AppLovin (current market cap $176 billion) and Shopify (current market cap $192 billion) could each reach roughly $370 billion by 2028. AppLovin's thesis rests on its Axon machine-learning ad engine (Morgan Stanley called it "best-in-class"), a new e-commerce ad platform that reached a $1 billion revenue run rate within months, a referral-based self-service dashboard and reported ad spend roughly quadrupling since Axon 2.0 launched in mid-2023.

Street consensus projects AppLovin earnings growing ~53% annually over three years, implying a 110% market-cap increase to $370 billion and a multiple compression from ~66x to ~39x if those targets are met; Shopify's consensus is ~32% annual earnings growth, implying a 93% market-cap increase and a multiple moving from ~108x to ~90x. The author favors AppLovin on valuation grounds but notes Shopify's track record of beating estimates and its AI initiatives across conversational shopping, merchant workflow automation and developer productivity.

Sentiment on the story is moderately positive with modest market-impact, but execution risk is central: both outcomes require the companies to meet aggressive earnings CAGRs and sustain product-led adoption. Disclosures show the author and The Motley Fool hold positions in Palantir and Shopify, which may bias the comparatives; investors should therefore prioritize measurable KPIs over narrative alone.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Consider a relative overweight to AppLovin versus Shopify if conviction rests on valuation and the 53% consensus earnings CAGR, but size positions modestly given execution risk
• Monitor specific KPIs before increasing exposure: Axon ad spend growth, e-commerce ad platform revenue run rate, timing of global self-service launch for AppLovin, and enterprise onboarding, wholesale share, international merchant growth and AI adoption metrics for Shopify
• Use position management tools (position limits, staged entries, or hedges) to protect against downside if either company misses the aggressive three-year consensus growth needed to justify current upside assumptions
• Factor in potential bias from the author's disclosed holdings and the moderately positive sentiment score by validating forecasts against independent models before committing incremental capital