Why First Bancorp (FBP) is Poised to Beat Earnings Estimates Again

First Bancorp (FBP), the holding company for FirstBank Puerto Rico, is anticipated to extend its streak of earnings beats, supported by a historical average surprise of 10.75% over the past two quarters, including a 9.30% reported surprise in the most recent period. This outlook is reinforced by a positive Zacks Earnings ESP of +3.60% and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), a combination historically predictive of a positive earnings surprise approximately 70% of the time, suggesting potential upside ahead of its next earnings report due July 22, 2025.

Analysis

First Bancorp (FBP) presents a compelling case for a potential earnings beat in its upcoming quarterly report, scheduled for July 22, 2025. The primary quantitative indicator supporting this outlook is a positive Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) of +3.60%, which signals that recent analyst revisions are trending upwards. According to Zacks' methodology, the combination of a positive ESP and FBP's current Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) has historically yielded a positive earnings surprise nearly 70% of the time. This forward-looking metric is supported by the company's recent history, where it has achieved an average earnings surprise of 10.75% over the past two quarters. This average includes a 12.20% beat in the prior quarter (reporting $0.46 vs. $0.41 consensus) and a reported 9.30% surprise in the most recent quarter. The positive ESP metric, driven by analysts revising their forecasts just before the earnings announcement, suggests that the latest available information may be more optimistic than earlier consensus estimates.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors with an existing or potential bullish stance on FBP may view the positive +3.60% Earnings ESP and historical 70% beat probability as a tactical indicator to hold or initiate a position ahead of the July 22 earnings release.
• Given the stock's Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) status, which is not a strong buy signal, a prudent approach would be to manage risk and prepare for a scenario where an earnings beat does not translate directly into a share price increase.
• Traders focusing on earnings events should monitor FBP closely, as the combination of a positive ESP and a history of significant surprises could lead to heightened volatility around the reporting date.