Renewed Support Tipped For Thai Stock Market

The Thai Stock Exchange (SET) concluded Friday down 1.30% to 1,274.61, ending a two-day winning streak with broad-based sector losses. This local decline occurred despite a positive global backdrop, as Wall Street rallied, with major indices gaining over 0.5%, driven by dissipating concerns over bad loans and easing US-China trade tensions following President Trump's comments on tariffs. This global optimism, which also saw crude oil prices rise, is expected to lead Asian markets, including the SET, higher on Monday.

Analysis

The Thai Stock Exchange (SET) concluded Friday with a 1.30% decline, or 16.85 points, to 1,274.61, ending a two-day winning streak. This downturn was broad-based, affecting sectors including finance, industrial, property, and technology, with 401 decliners against 76 gainers. Key individual stocks like PTT Global Chemical plummeted 5.65% and Energy Absolute plunged 4.73%, contributing significantly to the index's fall. Volume for the day was 8.322 billion shares valued at 36.760 billion baht.

Despite the local decline, the global market sentiment turned "moderately positive" with an "optimistic" tone, driven by a strong rally on Wall Street. Major US indices, including the Dow, NASDAQ, and S&P 500, each climbed approximately 0.5% on Friday, reversing earlier losses. This rebound was primarily fueled by the dissipation of concerns regarding bad loans and easing US-China trade tensions.

President Trump's comments suggesting that threatened high tariffs on China were "probably not sustainable" significantly contributed to the improved sentiment, particularly concerning trade policy. This shift also positively impacted energy markets, with West Texas Intermediate crude rising $0.20 or 0.35% to $57.66 per barrel, on expectations of increased demand from warmer trade relations.

The positive global backdrop, characterized by easing geopolitical tensions and a robust US market close, is expected to influence Asian markets. The article specifically forecasts the SET to "move back to the upside again on Monday," suggesting a short-term rebound driven by external factors rather than immediate domestic catalysts.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should monitor the SET's opening performance on Monday for confirmation of the anticipated rebound, particularly observing sector-specific recoveries that lagged on Friday.
• Evaluate exposure to Thai equities, considering the local market's susceptibility to global sentiment shifts, especially regarding US-China trade relations and commodity price trends.
• Assess the sustainability of the improved US-China trade outlook and its potential long-term impact on export-oriented sectors and energy demand, which could influence future market direction.