Should You Buy AbbVie Stock Ahead of Q3 Earnings Report?

AbbVie is anticipated to report Q3 2025 earnings with consensus estimates of $15.59 billion in sales and $1.80 EPS, primarily driven by robust growth in newer immunology drugs Skyrizi and Rinvoq, which are effectively mitigating the ongoing sales decline of Humira. However, the company's near-term profitability and 2025 EPS estimates have been significantly revised downward due to a substantial $2.7 billion in-process research and development (IPR&D) charge, impacting EPS by $1.50, stemming from recent strategic acquisitions and licensing deals. While these investments are expected to fuel a high single-digit revenue CAGR through 2029 and strengthen AbbVie's long-term growth outlook, they present a clear near-term headwind for earnings, creating a bifurcated investment perspective.

Analysis

AbbVie (ABBV) is poised to report Q3 2025 earnings with consensus estimates of $15.59 billion in sales and $1.80 EPS. Top-line growth is expected to be driven by robust sales of newer immunology drugs, Skyrizi and Rinvoq, with consensus estimates of $4.56 billion and $2.16 billion respectively, effectively offsetting the ongoing sales erosion of Humira, projected at $1.15 billion. Additional contributions are anticipated from neuroscience and recovering aesthetics segments.

However, the company faces significant near-term profitability headwinds due to a substantial $2.7 billion in-process research and development (IPR&D) charge, which is expected to impact Q3 EPS by $1.50. This charge, stemming from recent strategic acquisitions like Capstan Therapeutics, has led to a notable downward revision in 2025 EPS estimates from $12.02 to $10.81 within the last 30 days. Despite a history of earnings surprises, the current Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) and 0.00% Earnings ESP suggest a low probability of beating expectations for the upcoming report.

From a long-term perspective, AbbVie projects a high single-digit revenue CAGR through 2029, underpinned by the continued performance of Skyrizi and Rinvoq, alongside a diversifying pipeline. While the stock has outperformed significantly year-to-date, surging over 28% against the industry's 6%, its current valuation at 16.60x forward P/E trades at a premium to both its industry average of 15.58x and its five-year mean of 13.27x.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Short-term investors should carefully consider the immediate impact of the $2.7 billion IPR&D charge on Q3 EPS and the downward revision of 2025 earnings estimates.
• Long-term investors may focus on AbbVie's projected high single-digit revenue CAGR through 2029, driven by the strong performance of Skyrizi and Rinvoq and pipeline diversification.
• Monitor the Q3 earnings report for management's updated guidance on future profitability and the sustained growth trajectory of key products.
• Evaluate the stock's premium valuation (16.60x forward P/E) relative to industry averages and its historical performance, especially in light of near-term earnings pressure.