These stocks have been hit hard in 2025 but could surge by as much as 57% from here

Despite the S&P 500 rallying 14.5% YTD, the article identifies 20 S&P names that are down at least 20% in 2025 but have majority buy ratings and the largest implied 12‑month upside — led by Smurfit/WestRock (57% implied), Norwegian Cruise Line (54%), Trade Desk (52%), with Adobe (+40%), Block (+38%) and Salesforce (+35%) also highlighted. The screen augments price targets with consensus 2025–27 revenue and EPS CAGRs and forward P/Es to avoid value traps, and notes that four names (Norwegian, Trade Desk, Block and GoDaddy) trade below the S&P’s forward P/E while showing higher projected growth. It cautions that elevated projected EPS growth can reflect one‑offs (e.g., International Paper) and frames the list as a screening starting point that requires further fundamental diligence.

Analysis

The article screens 20 S&P 500 stocks that are down at least 20% in 2025 but carry majority "buy" ratings and the largest implied 12‑month upside from LSEG consensus targets; the list is led by Smurfit/Westrock (57% implied upside), Norwegian Cruise Line (54%), Trade Desk (52%) and includes large-tech names such as Adobe (Nov. 14 close $331.11; consensus $462.22, 40% upside), Block ($60.48 to $83.43, 38%) and Salesforce ($243.66 to $328.83, 35%). The piece notes the S&P 500 has risen 14.5% YTD while 66 names are down ≥20% and 29 of those carry majority buy ratings, framing this as a bargain-hunter screen rather than a full recommendation.

The report augments price-target upside with consensus 2025–2027 revenue and EPS CAGRs and forward P/Es to reduce value‑trap risk: Trade Desk shows revenue CAGR 16.0% and EPS CAGR 15.1% with a forward P/E of 20.1, Block revenue 9.7% and EPS 33.6% at P/E 18.3, GoDaddy revenue 7.1% and EPS 23.4% at P/E 18.6, and Norwegian revenue 8.7% and EPS 21.0% at a P/E of 7.0. The screen highlights four names (Norwegian, Trade Desk, Block, GoDaddy) that trade below the S&P 500 forward P/E of 22.6 while projecting higher growth.

Risks flagged include value‑trap mechanics and one‑off distortions: International Paper’s 2025 EPS is projected at $0.26 (vs $1.57 in 2024) with a rebound to $2.98 in 2027, and Weyerhaeuser shows an outsized EPS CAGR (113.1%) with a high forward P/E, signaling base‑year noise. Several names pay meaningful dividends (Smurfit ~5.03%, International Paper ~4.95%, Weyerhaeuser ~3.80%), so investors must verify earnings durability, analyst revision trends and operational catalysts before acting.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Prioritize names that combine material implied upside with credible multi‑year growth and below‑index forward P/Es—focus first on Trade Desk, Block, GoDaddy and Norwegian while verifying the underlying revenue and margin assumptions
• Avoid allocating on headline upside alone: investigate one‑off drivers behind extreme EPS CAGRs (e.g., International Paper, Weyerhaeuser) and require confirmatory cash‑flow or margin improvement before building positions
• Size initial positions modestly in cyclicals and high‑volatility beaten stocks (Norwegian, Smurfit/WestRock) and use event‑driven triggers such as upward analyst revisions, improving bookings or confirmed cost saves to scale in
• For dividend‑paying names, validate payout sustainability against consensus cash‑flow forecasts and hedge downside risk if dividend cuts would materially damage total return prospects