Where Will ChargePoint Stock Be in 1 Year?

ChargePoint's Q1 fiscal 2026 revenue declined 9% year-over-year to $97.6 million, missing estimates, though its net loss narrowed to $57.1 million, beating expectations by a penny. Despite margin improvements driven by subscription growth and cost-cutting, the company forecasts a continued revenue decline of 8% to 17% for Q2, citing macroeconomic uncertainties and tariff concerns. While analysts anticipate a near flat full year revenue and positive adjusted EBITDA in fiscal 2028, the company's stock remains undervalued, presenting a potential buying opportunity for investors willing to overlook near-term headwinds.

Analysis

ChargePoint (CHPT) reported mixed Q1 fiscal 2026 results, with revenue declining 9% year-over-year to $97.6 million, missing analyst expectations by $2.9 million. However, the company narrowed its net loss to $57.1 million, or $0.12 per share, surpassing consensus forecasts by a penny. Despite a post-earnings stock rally, CHPT shares remain down approximately 60% over the past year, reflecting persistent challenges from rising interest rates that have cooled EV market growth and delayed charging station installations. Positively, ChargePoint demonstrated significant margin improvement across adjusted gross, operating, and adjusted EBITDA metrics in fiscal 2025, a trend continuing into Q1 fiscal 2026 with adjusted gross margin reaching 31%, up from 26% in FY25. This improvement is attributed to growth in higher-margin subscription and software services, inventory reduction, and cost-cutting measures. For Q2 fiscal 2026, management cautiously guides for revenue between $90 million and $100 million, representing an 8% to 17% year-over-year decline, citing macroeconomic uncertainties and tariff concerns. While no full-year revenue outlook was provided, ChargePoint reiterated its goal of achieving positive adjusted EBITDA in a single quarter of fiscal 2026. Analysts project nearly flat revenue for the full year, implying an anticipated recovery in the second half, with annual adjusted EBITDA expected to improve to negative $63 million. The company maintains adequate liquidity with $196 million in cash and equivalents and an undrawn $150 million credit facility, with no debt maturities until 2028. Despite near-term revenue headwinds, its enterprise value of $465 million positions it at just over 1 times this year's sales, suggesting potential undervaluation if it achieves analyst forecasts of 29% revenue growth in fiscal 2027 and 33% in fiscal 2028, eventually reaching positive adjusted EBITDA of $67 million in FY28.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should weigh the current revenue contraction and macroeconomic uncertainties against the significant margin improvements and the company's strong liquidity position.
• Consider the stock's current valuation, which appears low relative to future sales projections, as a potential entry point for long-term investors tolerant of near-term volatility and cyclical pressures in the EV market.
• Monitor upcoming quarterly reports for evidence of revenue stabilization, continued progress on cost control and margin expansion, and achievement of the targeted positive adjusted EBITDA quarter in fiscal 2026, as these will be key catalysts for potential stock recovery.
• Factor in the CFO's cautious Q2 guidance and external risks like tariff uncertainty when assessing the risk-reward profile, particularly for shorter investment horizons.