Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico, S.A.B. de C.V. (PAC) Q2 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico (GAP) reported a solid Q2 2025, with revenue (ex-IFRIC-12) up 30.6% to MXN 8.2 billion and EBITDA increasing 31.1% to MXN 5.5 billion, yielding a 67.1% margin, despite higher operating costs and depreciation from new acquisitions. Passenger traffic grew 4.1% to 15.8 million, supported by new routes and tariff adjustments implemented in March. While maintaining annual guidance, GAP expressed caution regarding potential impacts from U.S. migration policies on VFR traffic and airline capacity constraints. The company continues to pursue inorganic growth, evaluating the Turks and Caicos tender and the entire CCR Airports portfolio, expecting to fund potential acquisitions without new equity given its 1.8x net debt-to-EBITDA.

Analysis

Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico (PAC) reported a robust financial performance for Q2 2025, underscored by significant top- and bottom-line growth. Revenue, excluding IFRIC-12, surged 30.6% year-over-year to MXN 8.2 billion, while EBITDA climbed 31.1% to MXN 5.5 billion, maintaining a strong EBITDA margin of 67.1%. This performance was driven by a combination of tariff increases implemented in March 2025, a 13.6% depreciation of the Peso, and a 4.1% increase in passenger traffic to 15.8 million. While the consolidation of a new cargo facility and hotel boosted absolute revenues, it also contributed to higher operating costs and depreciation, slightly compressing margins. The company's balance sheet remains healthy with a net debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 1.8x, supporting an ambitious MXN 13.3 billion annual CapEx plan and a shareholder dividend of MXN 16.84 per share.

Despite the strong results, management expressed a cautiously optimistic outlook, highlighting two primary headwinds. The most significant near-term risk stems from restrictive U.S. migration policies, which could suppress demand from the Visiting Friends and Relatives (VFR) segment, a crucial base representing approximately 38% of GAP's international traffic. Secondly, uncertainty persists regarding airline capacity, particularly with Volaris's fleet groundings due to Pratt & Whitney engine issues, which could constrain domestic traffic growth. To counter these risks, GAP is actively pursuing inorganic growth, including a bid for the Turks and Caicos airport and an evaluation of the entire CCR Airports portfolio, which it believes can be financed with debt without requiring new equity. Management is also phasing in further tariff increases, with the next major adjustment planned for early 2026, to maximize revenue under its regulatory framework.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should monitor the company's ability to implement further tariff increases, as this remains a critical lever for revenue growth and is dependent on traffic trends and FX volatility.
• Closely track international passenger data for any material deterioration in the VFR segment due to U.S. migration policies, as this represents the most significant near-term risk to volume guidance.
• Evaluate developments related to the potential acquisition of the CCR Airports portfolio, as a successful bid could be transformative for GAP's scale but would also significantly increase leverage, impacting its financial risk profile.
• Consider that while the dividend policy appears secure, driven by strong cash flow, execution risk on the large-scale CapEx program and potential M&A could pressure capital returns in the medium term.